The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is trading slightly higher this morning, building on its gains from late in the day yesterday, as market participants have seen an unwind of the conditions that initially dropped it lower this week. Following a hot March CPI report, the March FOMC minutes indicated that policymakers were leaving open the door for a faster pace of tightening should price pressures continue to edge higher.
Rates markets have seen the odds of four hikes this year by the Fed increase once again, retracing all of their losses seen since the March US Nonfarm Payrolls report was released last Friday. December 2018 odds for a fourth hike, which were down near 23% at the start of this week, have risen back above 34% today. Likewise, the odds of a June rate hike have increased to 87.2%, their highest point thus far this year.
But also proving to be a potent catalyst has been the Twitter diplomacy currently being waged by US President Trump. After tweeting yesterday that an attack on Syria could be imminent, which sent US equity futures and the US Dollar tumbling, and Gold skyrocketing, today quite the opposite has transpired: suggesting that an attack may not happen “at all,” stocks are pointing to a higher open with the greenback firming up and bullion dropping.
Needless to say, regardless of what is happening on the economic calendar – and today is certainly a lighter day than yesterday on the US side of data releases – the newswire remains the most potent source of event risk for market participants, regardless of what asset class they’re operating in.
See the above video for technical considerations in the DXY Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, the S&P 500, and Gold.