Trade data headlines show the trade balance again worsened from last month.
Analyst Opinion of Trade Data
The data in this series wobbles and the 3 month rolling averages are the best way to look at this series. The 3 month averages are slowing for exports and accelerating for imports. Thus the trade balance worsened.
The data is worse if one considers inflation is grabbing hold in exports and imports – and the headline numbers are not inflation adjusted.
The headline data is seasonally but not inflation adjusted. Econintersect analysis is based on the unadjusted data, removes services (as little historical information exists to correlate the data to economic activity), and inflation adjusts. Further, there is some question whether this services portion of export/import data is valid in real time because of data gathering concerns. Backing out services from import and exports shows graphically as follows: