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Fistfuls Of Dollars And The Good (Bitcoin), Bad (Bonds), & Ugly (Semis) Markets

By Kurt Osterberg · On April 20, 2018

Take your pick – Good, Bad, or Ugly…

Video length: 00:06:16

Good:

  • The Dollar’s best week in over 4 months

  • Silver’s best week in 4 months

  • Bitcoin’s best 2-week gain in 4 months

  • Not Good:

  • 30Y Bond’s worst week in 3 months

  • 10Y highest yield close since Dec 2013

  • Semi stocks worst week in a month

  • Techs worst weekly underperformance relative to Banks in over 3 months

  • Gold’s worst week relative to silver since Sept 2016

  • How about next week? Do you feel lucky?

    Video length: 00:00:13

    Odd week, all in all – major reversal midweek in many momentum strategies.

    Big shift in momentum midweek, left Dow, S&P and Nasdaq unchanged on the week, Trannies outperformed…

    S&P closed below its 50- and 100DMA…

    The Dow, S&P, and Trannies all tumbled back into the red for 2018 today; only Nasdaq (green) and Small Caps (dark red) remain green for the year…

    Growth was favored early in the week but rejected for value after Wednesday’s open…

    Tech was the early week leader over banks.. but then XTE’s ban and Taiwan Semi’s warning spoiled the party…

    Since The Fed hiked rates in March, stocks notably underperformed bonds into the end of March – then stocks outperformed bonds since April began… until the last couple of days…

    Mixed bag for the FANGMAN stocks…

    Mixed picture for banks too… MS leading, GS lagging…

    Ugly week for HY bonds – HYG tagged its 100DMA and rolled over…

    Bonds and Stocks recoupled after two weeks of trying… (green – buy both, red – sell both, orange – buy stocks, sell bonds)

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    Kurt Osterberg

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