While markets get whipsawed on trade war fears, back in the real economy things are smoking. Not only did we see smoking demand for oil, the preponderance of economic data is signaling even stronger U.S. and global energy demand. Where it counts in jobs and growth, things are looking the best they have in years. The combination of tax cuts and the removal of over regulation by the government is paying real dividends and helping average Americans and is one of the reasons President Trump’s approval ratings have risen to 51% according to the last Rasmussen poll. For example, ADP reported that the U.S. gained 241,000 jobs in March, much higher than expected and revised upwards last month’s jobs numbers. Oil supplies are signaling strong demand as oil inventories fall when they should be rising. Total demand U.S. system increased 131.000 barrel per day to 25.96 million barrels a day. Total crude demand (refinery and export) set an all-time high at 19.11 million barrels a day as refinery demand increased to 16.9 million barrels a day. Global demand is high as Crude exports set a record high at 2.175 million barrels a day.
Some of that demand is being driven by the U.S manufacturing sector that saw the strongest job creation in three years according to the ADP jobs data. The ISM Non-Manufacturing sector slowed but is still above par at 58.8% growth rates trending near the highs of the decade. So, if trade war fears are overblown, then oil will soar.
Larry Kudlow, the Director of the National Economic Council, helped bring sanity back to the market on Business Network’s Varney & Co. when he told Varney there is “absolutely not” a trade war between the U.S. and China. President Trump echoed that thought by saying in a tweet that “We are not in a trade war with China, that war was lost many years ago by the foolish, or incompetent, people who represented the U.S. Now we have a Trade Deficit of $500 billion a year, with Intellectual Property Theft of another $300 Billion. We cannot let this continue.”