With volatility returning to domestic equities, it might be time for investors to consider increasing their exposure to foreign markets, specifically emerging Europe. As I shared with you in January, emerging Europe countries, as measured by the MSCI EM Europe 10/40 Index, finished last year up more than 20 percent, and so far in 2018 they’ve returned 1.17 percent, compared to the S&P 500 Index, which is down more than 3 percent.
One of our favorite ways to measure growth, whether on a macro scale or in individual markets, is by using the manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI). Whereas gross domestic product (GDP) is backward-looking, PMI is a forward-looking economic indicator. We’ve found that it can forecast productivity and manufacturing activity three and six months out with a satisfactory level of accuracy.
With that in mind, I’d like to share with you the top six fastest growing countries in emerging Europe, based on their just-released manufacturing PMIs for the month of March. Each market’s reading is currently above 50, indicating expansion, which is very good news indeed for the group as a whole. The higher the number, the faster the expansion.
We’ll start with the country with the lowest PMI in the group and work our way up.
Russia’s manufacturing sector improved a shade better in March compared to February, when it came close to giving up all momentum for the first time since August 2016. Geopolitical headwinds now threaten continued expansion, including additional international sanctions and rising tensions between the country and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally nations. At the same time, BCA Research recently took a positive view of Russia, saying the country’s conservative fiscal policy has allowed expenditures to grow only slightly since the oil crash in 2014. Overall spending has fallen considerably, improving the deficit.