In this series, we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key levels that matter on the weekly charts for the NZD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/NZD.
NZD/USD WEEKLY PRICE CHART
Notes: Last month we noted that the New Zealand Dollar had,“continued to consolidate below the January highs at 7436 with the 200-week moving average catching the closes on the downside over the past few months. I’m looking for a resolution to this key price range over the coming weeks with key support (bullish invalidation) eyed at 7094-7140.”
Price registered a low 7153 before turning higher with the advance now eyeing range resistance at 7390(yearly high-close) and 7437 (yearly high)- note that the upper median-line parallel of the descending pitchfork (blue) AND the objective yearly opening-range high converge on this zone and weekly breach/ close would be needed to validate a larger breakout in Kiwi.
Bottom Line: Price is approaching confluence down-trend resistance and the yearly range highs- Look for a reaction at this level with the immediate long-bias at risk while below. Key support remains at the 2015 slope support which converges on the 52 & 200-week moving averages at 7170/90.
GBP/USD WEEKLY PRICE CHART
Notes: Simplicity is key! We’ve been tracking this ascending pitchfork formation extending off the 2016 / 2017 lows for over a year now in the British Pound. Our Bottom Line last month noted that “a breach / close above the 2018 high-day close at 1.4134 would keep the long-bias in play targeting the 200-week moving average at ~1.4280s and the yearly high at 1.4346.” Price is within striking distance of the 1.4346 target after breaking above the median-line last week- look for a reaction there.
Bottom line: The immediate focus is on yearly highs here with a breach targeting the sliding parallel (red) around ~1.4450s and the upper median-line parallel (blue) at ~1.4730s. Interim support rests with the high-day close at 1.4157 broader bullish invalidation, unfortunately still down at 1.3675. Looking for re-entries on a larger pullback.