The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), S&P 500 Index (SPX), and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) are flat this afternoon, shrugging off strong premarket gains. Tensions in the Middle East cooled after Iran said it would not respond to Israel’s attack, with oil prices moving lower. Investors are also keeping an eye on Big Tech earnings later this week, as well as the release of the personal consumption expenditures (CPE) price index. NRG Energy Inc(NYSE: NRG) stock is seeing unusual options activity today, with 7,812 calls and 15,000 puts across the tape so far, which is 12 times the volume typically seen at this point. The two most activ...
This is an update of some information I last posted several months ago.Real median household income is one of the best measures of average Americans’ well-being, but the official measure is only reported once a year, in September of the following year.So right now the most recent official measure is for calendar year 2022 (when you might remember gas prices surged to $5/gallon). In other words, it’s hopelessly out of date.There are several ways of approximating real median household income on a more timely basis available in the public data. For this purpose, wages are a very imperfect proxy, because income includes things like stimulus ...
Image Source: Pexels London stocks had a strong start to the week, rebounding from the previous week’s selloff. The easing tensions in the Middle East and anticipation around upcoming economic data likely contributed to the positive sentiment. It’s interesting to note the performance of different sectors, with life insurers seeing gains while precious metal miners experienced a decline, reflecting shifts in investor risk sentiment.Retailers, particularly Ocado Group PLC, drove the blue-chip index up by 4.8% following reports that a major shareholder urged the grocer to relist in New York. Jefferies upgraded its rating on Marks &...
Friday was another down day on the ugly side with the S&P 500 down 1% and the Nasdaq 100 was down 2%. However, the Russell 2000 was up and there were 1000 more stocks going up than down on the NYSE. For a change, the generals were weak, but the troops were strong. Keep that tidbit under your hat and don’t toss it aside.The new week starts with all of the major stock market indices oversold on a short-term basis and looking to bounce. In a perfect world, I would want to see stocks bounce for a few days and then try to find a bottom next week. This remains in line with what I forecast at the beginning of the year. A Q1 peak and then a Q2...
Image Source: Pixabay As you know stocks came down last week, as inflation can stay stuck at current levels, meaning that Fed may not be ready to cut rates just yet, and then you also have conflict in the Middle East between Iran and Israel. However, this escalation between Iran and Israel calmed down in the last few days, which is also visible through |crude oil that came back 81 area in recent trading session. If crude stays more sideways and slow here in this range, without any new escalations in the Middle East, then the stock market may see some stabilization I think, while metals can test a bit lower supports. Gold has a nice support ...
Image Source: Pexels The Bank of England is right to draw a distinction between the UK and US inflation outlook, and we expect the first rate cut to be in August or maybe even June. Sterling could come under greater pressure, but we think this is less of a concern for the BoE now than it was in 2022 or 2023. The Bank of England is turning dovishThe Bank of England is trying to tell us something, and markets are finally starting to take notice.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has hammered home the message that the UK’s inflation outlook is “rather different” to the US. That sentiment was echoed by Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden ...
Image Source: Pixabay The EUR/USD currency pairTechnical indicators of the currency pair: Prev Open: 1.0642 Prev Close: 1.0656 % chg. over the last day: +0.13% ECB policymakers’ statements hint at a willingness to start reducing borrowing costs as early as June, with some officials suggesting the possibility of three rate cuts before the end of 2024. With the June meeting seen as a done deal, talk has already turned to a second-rate cut, with some discussing a July meeting. This has put pressure on the single currency in recent weeks, and with the Fed now believing that rates will be cut much later this year, EUR/USD will find it...
Image Source: Unsplash Big money managers are starting to jump on the gold bandwagon as inflation worries grow.Over the last few weeks, gold held its ground despite headwinds including a strong dollar and rising bond yields. Geopolitical tensions have supported safe-haven buying but it appears a new player is entering the market – hedge fund and other big money managers concerned about sticky price inflation. According to a recent CNBC article, “Overweighting precious metals has become the consensus among the largest money managers.”A Citi analysis of big fund managers found that 83 percent are now long precious metals. Meanwhile, g...
Chevron Corporation (CVX – Free Report), one of the world’s leading oil companies, is set to report first-quarter results on Friday, Apr 26, and as always, market participants are anxiously anticipating the release. The stock has been steadily going up this year, notching up a decent gain, as the San Ramon, CA-based integrated player has benefited from strength in the Energy space. That said, let’s see if it’s time to buy Chevron’s stock, which has now climbed around 7.3% year to date to easily top the S&P 500. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Higher Energy Prices Fuel the AscentObviously, the recen...
The recent trajectory of US stocks has seen a sharp shift, transitioning from a relentless rally to a persistent pullback. After experiencing five consecutive winning months without a 2% decline, the market has faced three consecutive down weeks. This 5.5% setback in the S&P 500 is primarily attributed to the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy.The theme of sticky inflation coupled with the cautious stance of the Fed has led to significant fluctuations in the 10-year Treasury yield, soaring from 4.2% to over 4.6% within just three weeks. The prospect of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been pushed further in trad...