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  • Finance

    E Gold, Oil And G6 Targets For The Week Of October 22

    The SPX started the week strong and reached our upside target on Tuesday. However, it couldn’t hold onto the gains, reversed trend and finished the week flat. One thing to bear in mind is that during all sell-offs this year (February, April, May and June) the first swing low was followed by a lower low before the uptrend resumed: Those who don’t like to wait for the appearance of automatically generated trading signals can keep on the right side of the market by incorporating pivot levels into their analysis. The CIT Pivot line (not to be confused with floor trader pivots) is a convenient tool for visualizing entry and exit points and for...
    On October 20, 2018 / By
  • Finance

    History Rhymes With The Dow

    Market risks coming to the surface: Higher interest rates. US Congress control. China vs USA in trade. World wide Leverage. World wide liquidity issues. US Pensions. Corporate bond market. Emerging markets. To name a few. In the past it was look away, nothing to see here. Well things change, nothing stays the same, such is life. Video length 00:09:51 The point of our video this week: To bet on a massive change in volatility is most likely the easiest bet of all. Charts in video:  Will we get spurts of volatility like the above (either up or down), or all at once like below.   ...
    On October 20, 2018 / By
  • Finance

    Existing Home Sales Drop For 7th Straight Month As Homebuilders Stocks Collapse

    With US homebuilder stocks having their worst year since 2007, hope is high that September will show the long-awaited rebound in home sales (despite a soaring mortgage rate). After ‘stabilizing’ unchanged in August, existing home sales were expected to drop 0.9% MoM in September, but instead, August’s data was revised notably lower and September plunged… down 3.4% MoM – the biggest drop since Feb 2016. With SAAR at its lowest since Nov 2015… This is the seventh month in a row of annual declines in existing home sales… Sales fell across all price ranges (not just the low-end as we have seen recentl...
    On October 20, 2018 / By
  • Finance

    E Although Monetary Policy Is Still Quite Easy, Central Banks Are Tightening

    The two largest central banks (The Federal Reserve and the ECB) are easing back on their monetary stimulus which was so necessary to battle the multiple crises which emerged after the 2008 financial meltdown. Of course, the combined tightening impact is presenting a significant challenge to the global economic outlook as higher interest rates start to spread around the world to other economies. Indeed, the emerging market countries that marketed their debt in an era of cheap money are facing a turning point, as global capital is more attracted to the higher returns and lower risk available in the US and Europe. The ECB has been scaling back i...
    On October 20, 2018 / By
  • Finance

    Interest Rates: Spot The Trend

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    On October 20, 2018 / By
  • Finance

    Italian Debt Crisis Could Boost US Bonds

    Debt default contagion fears seem to surface every decade. Rolling debt bubbles in the 1980’s from Latin America led to billions in handouts from the first -world banking system. The Asian currency default contagion among the Asian tigers was eventually contained in the late 1990’s. More recently the more menacing US sub-prime mortgage debt default triggered the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The sluggish recovery from those ashes has kept Europe in continual panic-refresh mode every few years as they attempt to ring fence the unstable debt markets of its weaker sisters, primarily Greece and Italy. With the third largest European economy ...
    On October 20, 2018 / By
  • Finance

    SPX/Gold, 30Yr Yields And Yield Curve – Amigos 1, 2 & 3 Updated

    We began the Amigos theme last year in order to be guided by the goofy riders during the ending stages of a cyclical, risk-on phase that was not going to end until the proper macro signals come about, no matter how many times the bears declared victory along the way. The fact that grown adults see conspiracies around every corner (okay, I see them around every third corner myself, but work with me here) makes such macro signaling very necessary in order to keep bias at bay. To review… Amigo #1 is the SPX/Gold Ratio (more generally, stocks vs. gold) and a countercyclical and risk ‘off’ environment simply will not engage until stocks t...
    On October 19, 2018 / By
  • Finance

    Week In Review: Another Volatile Week On Wall Street

    It was another volatile week on Wall Street as investors digested a slew of earnings and the latest round of economic data. The market was quiet on Monday, then rallied 500 points on Tuesday, fell 300 points at Wednesday’s open, rallied back to close down 91 points. Then, Thursday was a big down day and it jumped 200 points on Friday’s open before the Nasdaq fell into negative territory.  Remember, in a normal healthy bull market (Feb 2016-Feb 2018 as the most recent example- or just about any other healthy run in the past) we do not typically see large bouts of volatility. Instead, large swings typically show up in sideways or down mark...
    On October 19, 2018 / By
  • Finance

    US Named “World’s Most Competitive Economy” For First Time In 10 Years

    For the first time since the financial crisis, the US has regained its ranking as the ‘World’s Most Competitive Economy’, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index. What’s more, the US also scored high in the “innovation” pillar of the WEF’s index, which the organization added to better reflect the factors that are necessary for an economy to succeed in the aftermath of the “fourth industrial revolution” (i.e. the dawn of the Internet age). The US nudged aside Singapore, last year’s leader, to reclaim the gold for the first time since 2008. Accordi...
    On October 19, 2018 / By
  • Finance

    Stocks Hit With Massive Sell Order Just After 2PM

    Last Thursday, October 11, the market selloff accelerated shortly after 2 pm when as we reported at the time, the market was unexpectedly hit with the biggest sell order since the May 2010 flash crash, when the NYSE uptick minus downtick index, hit a print of -1,793. The result was a 600 point plunge in the Dow in minutes. Why do we bring this up? Because recall that earlier today, when discussing Marko Kolanovic’s latest bullish forecast on the market, according to which the systematic selling was over and index options hedging was “pointing in an upward direction”, we said that “all eyes now turn to … the la...
    On October 19, 2018 / By