Previous: Friday’s trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly down. Sellers erased nearly all their gains in the US session after the news that former national security advisor Michael Flynn was ready to give testimony against Trump. The euro jumped 84 pips from 1.1851 to 1.1935. Once markets had calmed down, the euro receded to 1.1895. Day’s news (GMT +3): 12:30 UK: PMI construction (Nov). 12:30 Eurozone: Sentix investor confidence (Dec). 13:00 Eurozone: PPI (Oct). 18:00 USA: factory orders (Oct). Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView My expectations of a decline on Friday proved right, expect that before the drop, the eu...
In the Senate tax bill, someone making $100K gets an extra $100 to spend in 2027. Those making less than $75K lose money Tax reform was supposed to be simpler, more fair, not add to the deficit. and lower taxes on the middle class. It did none of those things, but it did lower taxes on corporations to 20%. Simpler – No The Senate version kept the complicated and much despised Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Senate Tax Brackets 7 vs House 4 Individual tax cuts expire after 2025 More Fair – No Lower Taxes on Middle Class – No By 2027, only those making more than $100,000 a year gain from reform. Those making $100,000 to $500...
The UK construction sector continues recovering, with a score of 53.1 points in Markit’s construction PMI. This is significantly better than expected and points to stronger growth in this sector. GBP/USD is stable at 1.3440. It seems to be waiting for news from Brussels. Brexit negotiations are becoming intense (see details below the chart). Here is how the move looks on the 30-minute chart. There are clearly bigger events in play: The UK construction purchasing managers’ index was expected to extend its recovery and rise to 51.2 points in November from 50.8 points. Last week’s manufacturing PMI slightly beat expectations. Tomorrow...
The markets open a new week in December with the economic calendar busy with the monthly data. A busy week for most of the G7 currencies, this week will see the RBA and the Bank of Canada holding their final monetary policy meetings for this year. No changes are expected from both the central banks. In the U.S, economic data will focus on the ISM’s PMI’s followed by the ADP private payrolls data. This will culminate with Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. This will be the final NFP report before the Fed will meet in a few weeks time to raise interest rates. Elsewhere, GDP reports are also lined up for Australia, the Eurozone, and Japan ...
Some people claim that humans—called breatharians—can live on air alone. Others claim we can have economic growth without increasing our resource use, so-called decoupling. Neither claim withstands scrutiny though here I am only going to deal with the second one. Hidden beneath the claim of decoupling is the assertion that human well-being and economic growth are synonymous. But, human well-being is far from a one-dimensional economic variable linked unalterably to more income and consumption. So, saying that economic growth must at some point come to an end to maintain the habitability of the planet is not the same as saying that huma...
After opening the day on a positive note, the Indian share markets have continued the momentum and are currently trading in green. Sectoral indices are trading mixed, with stocks in the IT sector and the telecom sector witnessing maximum buying interest, while stocks in the consumer durables sector are leading the losses. The BSE Sensex is trading up 105 points (up 0.3%) and the NSE Nifty is trading up 30 points (up 0.3%). Meanwhile, the BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 1.5%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 1.3%. The rupee is trading at 64.39 to the US$. In news from stocks in the pharma sector. Dr. Reddy̵...
Welcome to yet another edition of Macro Mondays! The parallels between investing and gambling are quite evident, but they become blatantly obvious when you take a look at margin trading. If you visit a casino, are you allowed to borrow money from the casino to bet? This might sound silly, but it isn’t when it comes to margin trading – you can effectively borrow extra money to make trades that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to make. Great if you make money, very bad if you lose money. What is ‘Margin Trading’? As we alluded to earlier, let’s continue the casino analogy. Imagine this: you’re sitting a...
Short-Term/Daily: Uptrend in place since September 28, 2017. Market bounced off support last Friday. Intermediate-Term/Weekly: Uptrend progressing since February 29, 2016. Market dropping following hit of circular resistance. Possible change of trend. Long-Term/Monthly: Uptrend since March 2009. Possible failed breakout of a large geometric channel, with a potential drop to channel support coming, which would produce an intermediate-term correction at the least. SHORT-TERM/DAILY: Last Friday, December 1st saw the Sensex dropping and touching circular support as seen in this next chart. It missed the specific price support level of the circ...
EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD could be in a wave B (purple) bearish retracement If price is able to break below the support trend line (blue). A bearish breakout could see price fall and challenge the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 (pink). 1 hour The EUR/USD break below support (blue) could see price fall towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (pink). A break above the resistance trend line (red) could indicate an extension of wave 1 (pink), although new resistance levels are nearby (red lines). USD/JPY 4 hour The USD/JPY has made another higher high within the uptrend channel and therefore a new bullish pattern (wave 3) seems more likely at th...