Central Banks About To Break The Market I think that many investors who are saying the Fed’s balance sheet unwind will be a nothingburger are tired of the story and they think it’s overkill. They are also myopic in their thinking. The chart below shows that even though we have been talking about an unwind and tapering for many months, not much has been done yet. The central bank liquidity as a percentage of GDP is still higher than it has been for most of this recovery. That’s about to change as a steep decline starts in 2018. When I say investors who focus on the Fed are being myopic, I mean that the reason the unwind is so critical is...
PayPal (PYPL) 2Q 2017 earnings were released after closing bell tonight. The company posted adjusted earnings of 46 cents per share on $3.14 billion in revenue, compared to the consensus estimates of 43 cents per share in adjusted earnings on $3.09 billion in revenue. In last year’s second quarter, PayPal reported non-GAAP earnings of 26 cents per share on $2.65 billion in revenue. CopyrightFreePictures/Pixabay PayPal 2Q 2017 earnings On a GAAP basis, PayPal 2Q 2017 earnings rose 27% year over year to 34 cents per share, versus the year-ago quarter’s 27 cents per share. The digital payments processor added 6.5 million active customer a...
The TIC data for May was inconsistent. It has been that way for several months, and importantly describes what I think is the operative “dollar” condition. Though the data is several months old already, we can tell by certain real-time prices and indications that the difference between 2016 and 2017 is very clear in some parts, and none in others. The headline data, for TIC anyway, is a perfect example. The monthly net transactions are broken into two broad categories: private foreign net purchases of US dollar assets, and those conducted by foreign official institutions (largely central banks). Despite a few months ago the media running...
Facebook first tumbled then jumped after reporting Q2 EPS of $1.32, which initially slammed the stock as much as 5% lower however, then jumped just as quickly when it emerged that Bloomberg had blasted a wrong EPS estimate, according to which the company had missed earnings of $1.38… FACEBOOK 2Q EPS $1.32, EST. $1.38 … only to immediately correct itself, and release the correct consensus expectations, which was $1.13. CORRECT: FACEBOOK 2Q EPS $1.32, EST. $1.13 Correction: Facebook Q2 revenue beats estimates https://t.co/Olpr5eLjlp pic.twitter.com/qmaAxWWhA2 — Bloomberg (@business) July 26, 2017 The algo reaction is shown below: ...
Photo Credit: Leo Newball, Jr. || I visited that building when I was 24. =========== June 2017 July 2017 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. No change. Feels like GDP is slowing, though. Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the begi...
The EUR/USD is headed for 1.18. The Federal Reserve did exactly what the market anticipated but unfortunately, that was not enough. The U.S. dollar sold off aggressively in the hour after the monetary policy announcement sending EUR/USD to a 2 year high. The FOMC statement did not disappoint – the Fed left interest rates unchanged, acknowledged that inflation declined and is running below 2%. They also set the stage for reducing asset purchases in September by saying balance sheet normalization will be “relatively soon.” These tweaks were all anticipated but clearly, investors wanted more. So between lofty expectations, a sharp reversal...
The latest hard data on global trade continue to show a picture of global trade volumes returning to trend growth. We look at the CPB global trade monitor data and the RWI/ISL global shipping container throughput index. The latter series provides a slightly more timely view and the key data series from that is displayed below. It shows seasonally and working day adjusted global container throughput activity and you can see a clear dip down in 2015/16 a sort of mini-recession or near-miss global recession as I’ve explained it previously. In any event, it’s a sign of health for the global cyclical outlook. The stronger global tr...
Ok, well yields are diving, although it took Treasurys a few minutes longer to react to the Fed statement than it took the dollar, which dropped like a rock pretty much immediately. We’ve now retraced the entirety of yesterday’s move higher in yields and notably, we’re now sitting pretty close to where we were on the 10Y just after the CPI miss: As Bloomberg notes, this was underpinned by a $395k/DV01 block trade in 10Y futs after the Fed decision (5k TYU7 at 125-24, 2:02pm ET). 5Y yields are lower by something like 6bps and the 5s30s is back through 107. A block trade in 5Y futs crossed at 1:35 (5,344 FVU7 at 117-31+). “Changes t...
Written by SmallCapPower.com TD Bank Group (NYSE:TD) (TSX:TD) is the sixth-largest bank in North America by branches and serves 25 million customers in three key business segments (Canadian Retail, U.S. Retail, and Wholesale Banking), operating in a number of locations in financial centers throughout the globe. TD Bank Group ranks among the world’s leading online financial services firms, with 11.5 million active online and mobile customers. TD Bank Group had $1.3 trillion (Canadian dollars) in assets on April 30, 2017. TD has reported consistent financial performance over the past several years and is expected to continue this track reco...