With both Japan and Europe out of the way, the Forex markets have moving fractionally to offer the US dollar a little strength. Of most interest to me is the Yen, which itself is off by about a quarter of a percent, which is letting gold slip away from all that overhead supply it has. I remain short GDXJ and long JDST, so we’ll see if, at last, gold can give up some of its recent strength and allow my miners shorts to prosper. As for equities, the overarching symbol remains SSDD, as lifetime highs are all around us. This song from Wicked sums up my feelings about the situation nicely:...
The Blackstone Group (BX) Q2 2017 and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) Q2 2017 earnings reports were released before opening bell this morning. Blackstone reported economic net income of 59 cents per share on in revenue, compared to the 62 cents per share Wall Street was expecting. The Bank of New York Mellon Q2 2017 earnings amounted to 88 cents per share, up from 75 cents per share in the same quarter a year ago. Wall Street had been looking for earnings of 84 cents per share. Revenue grew to $3.96 billion, up 4% year over year from last year’s $3.7 billion. Blackstone Group Q2 2017 earnings The Blackstone Group Q2 2017 earnings report reveal...
– Bitcoin volatility shows not currency or safe haven but speculation – Volatility still very high in Bitcoin and crypto currencies (see charts) – Bitcoin fell 25% over weekend; Recent high of $3,000 fell to below $1,900 – Bitcoin least volatile of cryptos, around 75% annualized volatility – Gold much more stable at just 10% annualized volatility – Bitcoin volatility against USD about 5-7 times vol of traditional forex trading – Cryptos remain subject to huge speculation with little fundamental analysis – Despite major differences, many crypto currencies correlated, mimic one another – Extreme hype – Bitcoin expert bets...
Major oil draw and a Saudi Arabian coup? The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported another major 4.727-million-barrel drawdown in crude supply even as US shale production rebounded last week causing US oil production to rise to 9.43 million barrels per day, up from 9.4 million barrels which puts it at a two-year high. We know that EU’s oil inventories are draining at a record rate, but it is not the only place where we see evidence of global rebalancing which helped oil close at a 6- week high. In Saudi Arabia, a report showed that Saudi domestic oil stocks fell to just 259 million barrels at the end of May 2017, which was the lo...
Just recently, Bloomberg ran a fascinating article discussing a new study from the McKinsey Institute. “American manufacturing could be poised to rebound as technological disruption shakes up global production chains, but that will offer little relief to displaced factory workers, according to new research by the McKinsey Global Institute. Now, McKinsey sees conditions changing in a way that could favor U.S. producers: automation is weakening the case for labor arbitrage as wages rise in emerging market economies and developing market residents are coalescing into a new consumer class, among other factors. While the U.S. could seize on t...
Ok, well the euro may have come off a little in the past 24 hours on profit-taking and general angst as to whether Draghi will have the balls to follow through and “assume Sintra”, but the setup for Thursday was clear. Euro at a near 15-month high… …European stocks that are starting to get anxious about currency strength… …and yields that are ready and willing to “tantrum” at the slightest sign of a hawkish “policy mistake”… Thursday’s policy decision comes after a Bloomberg report that suggested the central bank is “studying” how to go about exiting accommodation without roiling markets. As expected, t...
Indian share markets lost their growing momentum and finished marginally lower in the afternoon session. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood lower by 51 points, while the NSE Nifty finished down by 26 points. The S&P BSE Mid Cap finished down by 0.5% while & S&P BSE Small Cap finished up by 0.2%. Losses were largely seen in metal stocks, software stocks and pharma stocks. Asian stock markets finished higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. The Nikkei 225 is up 0.62% while China’s Shanghai Composite is up 0.43% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 0.26%. European markets are higher today...
While nobody was expecting much from the ECB’s policy statement this morning, with all eyes on Draghi’s press conference in 45 minutes, judging by the disappointed market reaction to what were largely canned remarks by the ECB which sent the EUR/USD in knee-jerk reaction lower, positioning is indeed stretched and unless Draghi comes out with hawkish bazookas blazing, the EUR/USD may slide bigly. Back to the ECB’s decision, it announced that it kept both its rates and QE unchanged, with QE expected to run at €60BN per month until end of December or beyond if needed, “and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sust...
Climate change is on course to do a lot of harm to our planet. That is why concerned economists like myself advocate measures that would at least slow the pace of damage and give us more time to adapt. Paradoxically, though, economists rarely discuss what global warming is likely to do to the economy itself. Will climate change destroy the global economy as it raises sea levels, intensifies extreme weather, and kills our crops? The answer turns out to be more complex than you might think. It is certainly not as simple as David Wallace-Wells endeavors to make it in his widely read New York Magazine article. In it, Wells describes an uninhabita...