The S&P 500 (SPX) fell again durin ghte third week of April 2024. The index closed out the week at 4,967.23, a little over three percent below the level it closed the second week. The index has dropped 5.5% below its record peak closing value from 28 March 2024.The main driving force behind the falling level of stock prices are slipping expectations for when and by how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during 2024. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool anticipates the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 18 September (2024-Q3) when a quarter point reduction is expected, some twe...
Copper Rally ContinuesCopper prices are seen breaking out to their highest level since June 2022 today as geopolitical uncertainty creates growing supply risks. News of fresh UK/US sanctions on Rusisan metals suppliers is stoking fears that an already-tight market will be further choked of supply. Copper futures are currently trading around 24% higher on the year, shrugging off the impact of a stronger US Dollar as traders focus on tight supply. Indeed, the latest COT data shows that copper long positions have been built up to fresh record highs in recent weeks, now the equivalent of more than two millions tonnes on the LME. Mixed Opinions O...
Image source: Pixabay Tension in the Middle East has eased, which has definitely contributed to some of the latest recovery in risk assets. Currencies have been better bid against the US Dollar and US equity futures are trying to turn back to the topside.Video Length: 00:00:56More By This Author:Tension Heats Up As Geopolitical Stress Intensifies Everything Up Except The Yen Have We Seen The Extent Of The Fed Rate Repricing?...
Image Source: Unsplash ASX: TRANSURBAN GROUP – TCL Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (1D Chart)Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) TRANSURBAN GROUP – TCL. We are identifying that TCL has a 2-red wave that opened in the form of a Zigzag, and may soon end, opening up the opportunity to move higher with wave 3-red. We will continuously monitor TCL in the ASX Stocks Top 50 service.ASX: TRANSURBAN GROUP – TCL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis ASX: TRANSURBAN GROUP – TCL1D Chart (Semilog Scale) AnalysisFunction: Major trend (Minor degree, red) Mo...
Several events are likely to trigger a significant increase in precious metals prices in the near future.As I have already pointed out in previous articles, the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to be announced on the evening of May 1, will trigger a historic bullish rally in gold, oil, and, above all, silver. This rally should continue throughout May, June, and July, before probably pausing until the end of October.What do we know?At the beginning of 2024, the M2 money supply stood at $20.92 trillion. Over the course of 2024, nearly $10 trillion in Treasury bonds will mature, representing almost 30% of the U.S. debt. The US g...
Image Source: Pexels Inflation is no coincidence. It is a policy. Governments, along with their so-called experts, attempt to persuade you that inflation stems from anything other than the consistent, albeit slower, rise in aggregate prices year after year. Issuing more currency than the private sector demands, thus eroding its purchasing power and creating a constant annual transfer of wealth from real wages and deposit savings to the government.Oil prices are not a cause of inflation but a consequence. Prices increase as more units of the currency used to denominate the commodity shift to relatively scarce assets. Therefore, oil prices d...
Nasdaq Under PressureTech earnings are back in focus this week as the market braces for a slew of big names due to report. The Nasdaq is sitting around 8% down off the YTD highs currently as a stronger US Dollar/shift in Fed outlook has prompted a squaring of long positions on the back of the six month rally we’d seen into the March highs. Netflix CrashLast week, shares in Netflix plummeted despite the company beating both earnings and revenues estimates. The fall came in response to news that Netflix will no longer report subscriber numbers going forward. With investors typically using the number as a key metric for gauging the company’...
Image Source: Unsplash The oil market gave back all of its gains after Iran downplayed Israel’s limited retaliatory attack. Energy – Speculators boost net long in BrentOil prices gave back almost all of their gains in the early trading session on Friday after it became clear that Iran was downplaying Israel’s limited retaliatory attack. However, what is quite surprising is despite the elevated risk and tension in the Middle East, oil prices do not appear to be overly concerned. ICE Brent settled almost 3.5% lower on the week. The market is obviously of the view that spare OPEC production capacity will come into play in the ev...
Expectations for the GBP/USD forecast are bearish as the pound continues to decline following last week’s dovish remarks from the Bank of England. At the same time, the recent drop in Fed rate cut delays kept the dollar on the front foot.On Friday, the BoE deputy governor noted that the risk of UK inflation stalling above the central bank’s target had dropped. Moreover, inflation might ease more than the central bank forecasted in February. Notably, these remarks followed the recent release of UK inflation data. According to the report, inflation fell to 3.2% in March from 3.4% the previous month. Although the decline was smaller than ex...
Image Source: Unsplash The precious metals sector performed poorly during the last three bear markets in stocks. Those include 2022 during initial Fed tightening, the Covid crash of spring 2020, and the heart of the global financial crisis in autumn 2008.Investors steadfastly believe that precious metals will decline during the next economic downturn. History has solidified their view.However, we are talking about recent history.Investors are succumbing to recency bias, a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historical ones and gives greater importance to the most recent events.Hence, because of what transpired over the past 15 ye...