The big Fed announcement/press conference/dot plot update isn’t until tomorrow, but let’s take a quick look at how bonds are doing in advance of the big day.
I confess I was getting jumpy about the strength bonds had been showing, including a pretty decent-looking basing pattern. Mercifully, a long-term trendline saved the day. Look how clean the repulsion is away from that trendline:
Stepping way back, into a multi-decade view, you can see how bonds have broken a very long-term trendline, which I think pretty much spells doom for bonds (and party-time for interest rates). You can compare the “beneath the trendline” price action by observing the tinted areas in the respective charts.
My bet is that once the dust clears after Powell’s debut tomorrow, you’re going to see bonds continuing to weaken.