The headlines say the durable goods new orders and backlog improved. However, the unadjusted three month rolling average declined.
Analyst Opinion of the Durable Goods Situation
Civilian and defence aircraft were the main tailwind this month. This series has wide swings monthly so our primary metric is the unadjusted three month rolling average which marginally declined. I consider this a weaker report than what is observed at first glance.
Year-over-Year Change of 3 Month Rolling Average – Unadjusted (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted (red line)
Comparing Seasonally Adjusted Durable Goods Shipments (blue line) to Industrial Production Durable Goods (red line)