Happy Easter & Passover to all!
It’s been a ‘Monster Bull’ since I said ‘if Trump wins it’s going to the moon’; not interstellar space. For now that’s the point.
Next week I will address several new topics of potential influence: among those are Japan’s decision to make ALL pension managers for the State ‘performance’ rather than fee-based (a big deal). Also China’s move to pay for Oil in their Yuan; and not the US Dollar.
Then there are potential inferences of France sending troops to Syria; replacing US Forces, and infuriating Turkey’s Erdogan (an influence on Oil prices?). Plus of course risk of Israel moving into the Gaza Strip if Hamas doesn’t immediately stop taunting Israel at its border. Perhaps that was the point of flying F-35’s undetected over Syrian, Iraq and Iran this past week; which shows Lockheed’s fighter does perform ‘as advertised’. There’s the expanded weekend ‘Tweet’ assault on Amazon too, with both good and bad implications.
Most significant; the technical perspective we’ve outlined, which included short-squeezes, because in our S&P guidelines we knew too many were playing for decline. But where’s investment-grade money and if it’s absent, what’s the implication for this Summer?
Defensive rallies above June S&P 2600 are intended to give markets a modicum of ‘cushion’ or technical space; forestalling potential risks of a breakdown from these levels. We knew they’d try to do so; so that’s why I commented Wednesday that whether the market held together on Thursday and again bounced off S&P 2600, really wasn’t the point. Prices just had to contend with the nuances of End-of-Quarter shuffles; desperate efforts to rebound the FANG stocks, and of course technically what is a defensive action to ‘hold the line’.
After all it has been a down Quarter especially from my warnings right near the end of January’s parabolic upside thrust. And the profits for this Quarter generally benefited the Bears, not the Bulls; much as called for. So Bulls have not only engaged in a defense of the S&P 2600 area; but doing so after Bears harvested downside gains of significance, that are entirely in-line with our call for this overall market since January.