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February 2018 Headline Existing Home Growth Rebounds

By Kurt Osterberg · On March 21, 2018

The headline existing home sales growth rebounded with the authors saying sales “Affordability continues to be a pressing issue because new and existing housing supply is still severely subpar.“.

Analyst Opinion of Existing Home Sales

The rolling averages have been slowing since the beginning of 2017, and they marginally decelerated this month. The rolling averages are continue to be marginally in contraction. Housing inventory is now at historical lows for Februarys – and if you do not have enough houses for sale – then that means home sales cannot improve.

Econintersect Analysis

Unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 3.1 % month-over-month, uo 1.3 % year-over-year – sales growth rate trend slowed using the 3 month moving average.

Unadjusted price rate of growth decelerated 0.6 % month-over-month, up 4.3 % year-over-year – price growth rate trend marginally slowed using the 3 month moving average.

The homes for sale unadjusted inventory improved this month compared to last month, but remains historically low for Februarys, and is down 8.1 % from inventory levels one year ago).

NAR reported:

Sales up 3.0 % month-over-month, up 1.1 % year-over-year.

Prices up 5.9 % year-over-year

The market expected annualized sales volumes of 5.300 M to 5.620 M (consensus 5.420 million) vs the 5.540 million reported.