Finance 0

Little Wage Inflation But February Jobs Jump 313,000

By Kurt Osterberg · On March 9, 2018

Economists expected significant wage growth in the jobs report. Nope. The surprise was in the strength of jobs.

Initial Reaction

Today’s establishment survey shows jobs rose by 313,000 topping the consensus estimate of 205,000 and even the top estimate of 230,000 by a wide margin.

The household survey (Table A) shows the baseline unemployment rate was steady at 4.1% for the fifth consecutive month.

U-6 unemployment, which counts involuntary part-time jobs was steady at 8.2%.

The average workweek rose by 0.1 hours. Year-over-year the workweek is up 0.1 hours. so ignore any mainstream comments about strength of the workweek.

Those expecting wages to jump based on Phillips Curve nonsense were disappointed again. Average hourly earnings rose 0.15%. Year-over-year wages are up 2.6%.

The labor force rose by 806,000. More people are looking for jobs.

Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Nonfarm Payroll: +313,000 – Establishment Survey

Employment: +785,000 – Household Survey

Unemployment: +22,000 – Household Survey

Involuntary Part-Time Work: +171,000 – Household Survey

Voluntary Part-Time Work: +194,000 – Household Survey

Baseline Unemployment Rate: flat at 4.1% – Household Survey

U-6 unemployment: +0.0 to 8.2% – Household Survey

Civilian Noninstitutional Population: +154,000

Civilian Labor Force: +806,000 – Household Survey

Not in Labor Force: -653,000 – Household Survey

Participation Rate: +0.3 to 63.0 – Household Survey

Employment Report Statement

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 313,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in construction, retail trade, professional and business services, manufacturing, financial activities, and mining.