It was another snooze-fest in the natural gas market today, with prices ticking weakly higher within a very narrow trading range.
Prices ticked a bit higher after the settle too, expanding the daily range, but it still sits as the smallest of the year at just 3.4 cents.
This was not a surprise to subscribers, as in our Afternoon Update yesterday we forecast that support would hold with a more supportive strip and if anything prices would wonder higher towards resistance. Prices did not quite complete that trek up, falling a cent short, but prices continually bounced off a lower support level through the day, trading within the generally expected very narrow range.
Today was a bit different in that through much of the day the prompt month April contract seemed like it wanted to rally but was held back by later contracts. The result was a day where the April contract actually logged the most gains.
This makes sense when looking at the latest weather forecasts. Our final weekend forecast attached in our Pre-Close Update increased heating demand expectations later in March. This came even as the Climate Prediction Center slightly decreased them in the 8-14 Day time period.
In our Note of the Day today for clients we explained where the main uncertainties were in model guidance heading into the afternoon 12z runs.
Sure enough, some of those uncertainties were resolved, and our afternoon GWDD forecast was raised. The front of the natural gas strip ticked up higher as well.