One of the narratives that is quickly becoming a driver of markets is the idea that a confluence of factors have conspired against market darlings like Facebook and Google.
Not the least of these factors is politics. As we noted first thing this morning and as we detailed extensively over the weekend both here and elsewhere, the political environment is extremely charged right now, and the details around the Cambridge Analytica story suggest that Facebook is going to get thrown right back into the fray at a time when lawmakers are at their wits’ end.
It’s entirely possible that between the Facebook drama, the Uber fiasco, and the focus on cryptocurrency regulation, the tech sector might be headed for a multi-pronged regulatory crackdown that could reverberate through markets thanks to the fact that, as Bloomberg’s Mark Cudmore wrote on Tuesday, “much of the rally of the last few years for global equities has hinged on the technology sector [and if you] damage this pillar then earnings, valuations, supply chains, trade and innovation all suffer.”
Well picking up on this theme is Nomura, who is out with a pretty damn interesting note on Tuesday provocatively entitled “The bubble you didn’t know about could be bursting without you knowing.”
They begin by pointing out something that will please our good buddy Kevin Muir (of Macro Tourist fame) – namely that “one of the challenges of identifying bubbles is that too often we use the playbook of the previous bubble.”
The propensity to suppose that the next crisis will resemble the last leads us not only to look in the wrong places for catalysts and proverbial coal mine canaries, but also to hedge incorrectly.
For their part, Nomura thinks everyone has until recently been blind to what they’re calling the “data bubble.”
The bank thinks it’s possible that “data” is improperly conceived by analysts and investors. Specifically, they note the obvious, which is that “assets are things that can generate recurring income, and thanks to the revenues of many social media and tech companies we know that is the case.”