The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 1.8% and 2.1% on Friday, as investors’ sentiment remained very bearish following Thursday’s sell-off. The S&P 500 index broke below the level of 2,600, as it got closer to its February 9 local low of 2,532.69. It currently trades 9.9% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8%, and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 2.4% on Friday.
The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,530-2,550, marked by the above-mentioned early February low. There is also a medium-term upward trend line, beginning in March of 2017. On the other hand, resistance level is at 2,600, and the next level of resistance is at around 2,640, marked by previous local lows.
We can see that stocks reversed their medium-term upward course following whole retracement of January euphoria rally. Then the market bounced off its almost year-long medium-term upward trend line, and it retraced more than 61.8% of the sell-off within a few days of trading. The market was in the middle of two possible future scenarios recently. The bearish case leading us to February low or lower after breaking below medium-term upward trend line, and the bullish one with medium-term double top pattern or breakout higher. Last week’s sell-off made the bearish case very likely, almost a certainty. You should take notice of a breakdown below potential rising wedge pattern. This over month-long trading range looks like an upward correction following late January – early February sell-off:
Stocks Set to Open Much Higher
Expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are very positive because the index futures contracts trade 1.3-1.6% higher vs. their Friday’s closing prices. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.5-0.6% so far. There will be no new important economic data announcements today, but the market will wait for some FOMC’s Members speeches later in the day. Will stocks continue higher after the opening of the cash market trading session? We will probably see some short-term fluctuations. The overall sentiment remains bearish. The index broke below its early March low, so bears are still on the run.