In May of last year, I wrote a blog post debating the likely path of the market through 2019. To wit:
“The chart below is a Fibonacci retracement/extension chart of the S&P 500. I have projected both a 123.6% advance from the 2009 lows as well as a standard 50% retracement using historical weekly price movements.”
From the bullish perspective, a run to 3000, after a brief consolidation following an initial surge to 2500, is a distinct possibility. Such an advance is predicated on earnings and economic growth rates accelerating with tax cuts/reform being passed.
However, given the length of the economic and market cycle, there is a significant bear case being built which entails a pullback to 1543. Such a decline, while well within historical norms, would wipe out all gains going back to 2014.”
Since that time, tax cuts/reform have been passed, earnings estimates have exploded higher, and corporate stock buybacks have surged to record levels while wage growth has remained non-existent for the bottom 80% of workers.
Not surprisingly, with those tailwinds, the market has pushed sharply higher towards our original target of 3000.
Currently, the pathway that target remains intact along with the longer-term bullish trend. However, the risk of a deeper correction, particularly given the signs of current economic weakness and weaker than anticipated revenue growth, continues to prevail.
Let me repeat, for those who may be “hard of reading,” the bullish trend remains intact and corrections should remain confined to the bullish trend for now which has been the case since 2009.
From the bullish perspective, a run to 3000, assuming the current consolidation completes successfully, is still a possibility as I detailed in last weekend’s missive: