The third estimate of fourth quarter 2017 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised upward to 2.9 % from the second estimate’s 2.5%.
Analyst Opinion of GDP
The increase in GDP in this third estimate was primarily due to an increase in consumer services spending and less negative inventory change. The consumer spending improved from the previous quarter. I am not a fan of quarter-over-quarter exaggerated method of measuring GDP – but my year-over-year preferred method showed moderate acceleration from last quarter.
The market expected (from Bloomberg / Econoday):
Real GDP Expressed As Year-over-Year Change
The same report also provides Gross Domestic Income which in theory should equal Gross Domestic Product. Some have argued the discrepancy is due to misclassification of capital gains as ordinary income – but whatever the reason, there are differences.
Real GDP (blue line) Vs. Real GDI (red line) Expressed As Year-over-Year Change
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month.