Despite last month’s rally the USD continues to have problems pulling away from the key 90 price point, as traders and investors now look to the 21st March FOMC meeting. And with Fed members now ‘in purdah’ ahead of this meeting we can only turn to the CME Fed watch tool, and the DXY for any clue as to the likely direction for the currency of first reserve.
Starting with the CME Fed watch tool this is currently showing a very high probability – 86% the Fed will raise interest rates at this meeting, which should help to give the USD a boost. However, given this increase in rates has already been signaled to the markets by a number of Fed members the only surprise on the day may be if the Fed fails to raise rates, and simply decides to hold instead.
From a technical perspective the most significant upside and downside levels for the DXY (aside from the 90 already mentioned) is the 93 price region of 2004 & 2005, which if achieved would take the index into the deep area of price congestion of the 1990s, whilst a failure to hold the 90 level would take the DXY down to test the platform of support in the 83 region, and any break here down to 80 and the lows of 2014.