The market sell-off that started at the beginning of the year has led to increased talk of recession. But the underlying data of most major economies does not point to that potential outcome (at least, not yet). The EU continues to grow slowly, as does the UK. Australia is making the transition from a raw materials exporter to a more balanced economy while Japan meanders slightly forward. Most importantly, China continues to post solid GDP gains (I take an in-depth look at the US in this week’s equity column and conclude there is sufficient underlying strength to maintain a positive rate of growth). The ECB released their latest ...
Video Length 00:31:49 Maurice Jackson: Welcome to Proven & Probable. I’m your host, Maurice Jackson, and joining me today is an adviser to Institutional Investors on Investing in the junior mining companies. His name is Jayant Bhandari. Jayant, thank you for joining us today. Jayant Bhandari: Maurice, thank you very much for having me today. Maurice Jackson: Sir, you have a reputation of being one of the most respected names in the natural resource space. Would you mind sharing with the audience your background, please? Jayant Bhandari: Well, I grew up in India and the reason I left India was because I was sick and tired of the ...
GBP/USD The British pound fell initially during the course of the week but found enough support below to turn things around and form a bit of a hammer. By doing so, it looks like the market is ready to try to go higher and I think if we can clear the range for the week, we could see this market go to the 1.48 level. I don’t really have a scenario in which I’m comfortable selling at the moment, as this market is showing too much support. EUR/GBP The EUR/GBP pair had a very strong showing early in the week, but turned back around to form a bit of a shooting star. By doing so, it looks as if the market is going to continue to try to find sup...
We are at the tail end of the fourth-quarter earnings season and auto stocks seem to be racing ahead of estimates. As of Feb 10, 2016, around 80% of the auto stocks had reported earnings with an average beat ratio of 62.5%. Moreover, the growth rate of earnings for these companies was 9.1%. Once all the auto stocks report their results, the earnings growth rate for the sector is expected at around 8.2% for the quarter compared with a negative growth rate of 6.5% expected from all the S&P 500 companies. Moreover, the auto sector is expected to rank third among the 16 Zacks sectors in terms of year-over-year increase in average earnings ...
One of the most common questions that I get asked as an analyst is the following: Should I invest in gold? The answer to this question is a lot simpler than one might expect – it depends. For starters, it should be known that gold is a safe-haven investment during times of geopolitical uncertainty, equities weakness, or falling interest rates. At this juncture, the world is teetering on the edge of a recession, with the MSCI all country world index having plunged 20% from its high in mid-2015 as can be seen in the chart below. For those who don’t know, the MSCI all country world index is a rather broad measure – a weighted index ...
With so much riding on the American “consumer” – given the collapse of the US manufacturing industry and massive mal-investment over-stocking falsely signaled by The Fed’s “help” – one wonders just what happens next as the Services economy begins to roll over and the gap between the consumer and industrial America – which has never, in over 30 years, been wider – converges back to a new normal dystopia. It’s different this time… And while Goldman desperately does not want to admit reality, they are forced to… but manage to find a possible silver lining… The indus...
Fundamental Forecast for the Yuan: Neutral All About The Yuan Stocks are Rebounding and Fresh Bear Flags are Forming What Are the Traits of Successful Traders? Get FXCM’s Free New eGuide The offshore Yuan (CNH) rose to the highest level in two months against the US Dollar last week thanks to a smaller-than-expected drop in China’s foreign reserves combined with Chair Yellen’s testimony saying that negative rates are not out of the question for the US economy. The rally in the Japanese Yen over the past two weeks has also helped to reduce pressure on the Yuan, despite of Bank of Japan’s negative interest rate policy. On the coming...
The coming week ahead is likely to be even livelier than last week, as there is more key economic data due, including the all-crucial FOMC Meeting Minutes release, as well as some statements from the central banks of both Australia and New Zealand. Monday is a public holiday in the U.S.A. so it is possible that the week might start relatively quietly. Nevertheless markets have been very turbulent lately, so do expect that any market calm can end suddenly. U.S. Dollar A crucial week lies ahead for the Greenback after Monday’s public holiday, as on Wednesday we will get the FOMC Meeting Minutes as well as Building Permits and PPI data earlier...
After an astounding performance in October–December 2015 period, the technology sector lost its luster thanks to global headwinds and a spate of disappointing earnings reports. Total earnings for 89.5% of the sector’s total market capitalization that have reported so far are up just 0.1% on 2.3% revenue growth. However, the beat ratios are impressive with 76.1% of the companies beating on earnings and 60.9% trumping revenue estimates. However, some of them issued a disappointing revenue outlook. Let’s dig into the individual performances: Semiconductor Earnings in Focus Intel (INTC – Analyst Report), the world’s largest chipma...
Value is a much revered investment style. It combines the intellectual appeal of a rational foundation (mathematically justifiable price expectations, margins of safety, discounted future cash flows, etc.) with a bit of star appeal (the ability to emulate the likes of Ben Graham, Warren Buffett et. al.). So “Value” versions of popular ETFs would seem to be a no-brainer. Or not. A Cold Spell Value has been struggling lately. Over the past 12 months, the 35 Value ETFs in the Portfolio123 database declined 13.42% on average versus a loss of 8.08% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Table 1 shows performance of various sub-categories of ETFs ...