The latest house price data, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, illustrate a critically important point: real estate is local. That seems an obvious statement, but many of us have to make national or even global generalizations about the economy, the demand for mortgage debt, the net worth of households, or the need for new construction. So there’s good reason for generalizing even though experience is tremendously varied from one metropolitan area to another. Dr. Bill Conerly based on data from S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Appreciation The chart nearby shows the past 12 months’ price appreciation. We in ...
<< Read Part 1: FAANGs In Finance: Joining The Customer Journey << Read Part 2: FAANGs In Finance: Amazon What’s the #1 source for fast, accurate information? Google. With a culture of transparency and unparalleled data management capabilities, Google is positioned to help wealth managers engage clients by delivering the highest level of insight into their investments. With rumors circulating of a Google Wealth product, today’s financial institutions should act fast in embracing Google’s platform. In a 2015 FactSet survey, high net worth individuals (HNWIs) were most excited about a wealth management offering from Google, ...
The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg/Econoday) were 235 K to 243 K (consensus 240,000), and the Department of Labor reported 244,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 244,000 (reported last week as 243,750) to 244,000 . The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014. Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims The trend of the 4 week moving average was unchanged this week. This marks 123 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 3...
It has been a contrarian trade that has not yet worked out; by that I mean my short position on the Euro and preparation for a firming US dollar. Yesterday the market cheered the supposedly dovish Fed, and USD got smeared again as the world’s counter party paper boosted assets far and wide… on nothing but perceptions and a hell of a lot of momentum and gaming on FOMC day. USD opened weak again today but so far at least, is sporting a Hammer which, if it stays in play, would be a bullish reversal candle. Regardless, whether that is a bullish Hammer or not, Uncle Buck is due for a contrary bounce and it is coming due soon. Reference this ...
Yesterday, the Fed released its most recent monetary policy statement. How can it affect the gold market? In line with expectations, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at between 1.00 and 1.25 percent: “in view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent.” As we predicted yesterday, the statement was little changed, but the U.S. central bank acknowledged the subdued inflation. It pointed out again that inflation was running below 2 percent, but this time removed the adverb ‘somewhat’: “On a 12-month basis, o...
Durable goods orders rose a whopping 6.5% in June led by civilian aircraft orders. Econoday economists expected a 3.5% rise. Excluding transportation, however, durable goods orders only rose 0.2% vs the Econoday consensus of 0.4%. Rounding out the report, a commerce department revision took May from -1.1% to -0.1%. Aircraft orders don’t dribble out day by day, they come in big monthly batches and an especially big one in June that masks otherwise mixed results. Total orders surged 6.5 percent to top Econoday’s consensus for a 3.5 percent gain and high estimate for 6.0 percent. But when excluding transportation equipment that include...
So often investors take one move on the part of a central bank as a signal that the universe has changed fundamentally. This is the case with the knee-jerk reaction on the part of bond investors and currency speculators following the Bank of Canada’s decision to hike its overnight rate by 25pbs. Now, there are a spade of analyses speculating on the Bank’s next move this year and beyond. Mortgage analysts sound the alarm bells that rates are going to go up and homeowners had better start locking in financing to avoid having to pay much more in the coming months. To the Governor Poloz’s credit, the policy statement did not set a path for ...
Citi is out with a new take on crude, which is pretty interesting in the context of Goldman’s “green shoots,” note and against what certainly appears to be a brightening fundamental picture. As we detailed earlier today, oil hit an 8-week high on Wednesday, buoyed by EIA data which largely confirmed Tuesday’s bullish API numbers, jitters about Venezuela, and promises of a cap on Saudi exports. Then, after the bell, we learned that Whiting is cutting its 2017 budget by 14% to $950 million. That came one day after Anadarko announced plans to cut spending. “It’s been a bullish week certainly, data-wise,” John Kilduff, a partner at...
(Video length 00:02:48) In Currency Cycles, we forecast the price action in the near term for the euro. The euro may still have a little upside left, but having just undergone a big rally, it’s due for a pullback as its intermediate cycle comes to a close. Ed. note: Pot odds are defined as the ratio between the size of the pot and the bet facing you....
Dow Chemical (DOW – Free Report) topped earnings expectations in second-quarter 2017, helped by its cost-cutting and productivity actions, improved pricing and continued focus on consumer-driven markets. The U.S. chemical giant registered adjusted earnings (barring one-time items) of $1.08 per share for the quarter that comfortably beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.01. On a reported basis, the company registered a profit of roughly $1.3 billion or $1.07 per share, down around 58% from a profit of $3.1 billion or $2.61 per share recorded a year ago. The results in the reported quarter include costs related to transactions and pr...