First-quarter GDP was lower than any estimate in the Bloomberg Econoday consensus range of 1.7 percent to 2.8 percent. Inflation was higher than expected.GDP and GDI from the BEA, chart by Mish Chart Notes
Advance GDP 2024 Q1Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Understanding ImportsThe BEA says “Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.”That statement is inaccurate. Imports do not change GDP given the “D” stands for “Domestic” and imports are not domestic.However, the BEA needs to subtract exports because procedures are such that imports are included in sales when they they shouldn’t be,Price Indexes
If the measures of inflation are understated, then Real GDP and GDI are overstated.Compared to expectations, this was a miserable report. One can see it in bond yields (up) and the stock market (down).Bond Yields
Growth underperformed while inflation was higher than expected.More By This Author:Tesla Rebounds On Musk Promises With No Details, It Won’t StickARK Destroyed More Wealth Than Any Asset Manager Over The Previous Decade New Home Sales Rise 8.8 Percent After 3.8 Percent Negative Revision
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