The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved. The unadjusted three month rolling average improved.
.Analyst Opinion of the Durable Goods Situation
Our analysis is more positive than the headlines as we see improvement this month. Civilian aircraft were the main headwind this month. If one removes aircraft – this is a soft report. This series has wide swings monthly so our primary metric is the unadjusted three month rolling average which improved.
Econintersect Analysis:
Year-over-Year Change of 3 Month Rolling Average – Unadjusted (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted (red line)
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Comparing Seasonally Adjusted Durable Goods Shipments (blue line) to Industrial Production Durable Goods (red line)
Census Headlines:
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