First things first – Japan tapered its bond purchases once again (and sparked chaos in bond land) and China shifted its FX regime, sparking a tumble in the Yuan… Both seemingly sending a clear message to bond bulls.. 6 days into 2018 – 6 days up for the S&P 500 and 6 days with 10Y above 2.4% – and the 3% YTD gain for the S&P (orange) is the best start to a year since 1987 (Nasdaq is up 4.5% YTD, and Small Caps are lagging up just 1.8% YTD) Today saw a weak close for the first time in 2018 which dragged Small Caps into the red, and Nasdaq red briefly before the close… Dow outperformed with Boeing domi...
Blockchain stocks are hot. In fact, they are too hot, and that has a risk associated to it. Case in point: A little-known micro-cap stock called Long Island Iced Tea Corp. announced on Thursday December 21st that it changes its name into ‘Long Blockchain Corp.’ The same day its stock price rose more than 200 percent at the open of trading, said CNBC the very same day. There was a lot of fuzz around this stock in the days after. Some financial media and analysts were lyric, some others were cautious, in any case everyone was amazed about blockchain stocks. Many investors got hit by FOMO which is the Fear Of Missing Out the rally. Tha...
Stocks Have An Endless Bid The S&P 500 was up again on Monday, foiling my thesis that there would be a correction this week. The S&P 500 is up 5 out of 5 days this year for a gain of 2.77%. Some investors who outperformed last week already had gains which equal a good year in the first 4 days of trading. It doesn’t get much better than that. This is the best start to a year since 2006. The best streak of record highs to start a year was 6 in 1964. The 2.6% increase last week would have been the best week in 2017, showing that the momentum has only accelerated. As we’ve discussed, when stocks have a good January, it means the re...
The bulls are in full control. Until then, shorting the market serves little to no purpose. While I’ll still continue to post these lists of short setups, shorting these stocks or the market as a whole would not be considered the path of least resistance. More like the greatest amount of resistance. For beginners you at least need to see the market finish in the red at some point in 2018. That has yet to even happen. So, know that this list exists. If you need it, you can find it here, and we’ll just go from there. 🙂 Here’s the bearish short setups to follow:...
On Tuesday afternoon, Jeff Gundlach held one of his more exhaustive “Just Markets” calls with investors. Among the numerous discussion points touched upon, the “bond king” who alone predicted Donald Trump’s victory one year before the election, had several more bold contrarian calls, key among which was his observation that while stocks are now in an “accelerating phase”, his 2018 prediction is that the S&P would post a negative rate of return, which arguably is a more complex way of saying the S&P would be red for the year. A main catalyst for Gundlach’s bearishness – for both b...
TM Editors’ Note: This article discusses a penny stock and/or microcap. Such stocks are easily manipulated; do your own careful due diligence. On July 5, 2017, U.S. Gold Corp. (USAU) announced that it had completed the acquisition of the Gold Bar North [GBN] claims in Nevada. The acquisition expands on the company’s existing claims in the region and represents an important strategic expansion of both mineral rights and potential target deposit size with minimal financial outlay. In response to the acquisition, here’s a look at what the GBN claims mean for US Gold Corp. right now and how they play into the company’s dev...
Note: This commentary has been updated with the latest numbers from last week’s Employment Report. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). The result is the participation rate expressed as a percent. The first chart below splits up the LFPR since 1948 in two ways: by age and by gender. For the former, have the 25-64 age cohorts to represent what we traditionally think of as the “pro...
China’s Central Bank hints to have suspended proactive adjustments in the Yuan fixing, a daily reference rate that it issued to the market. On January 9th, the PBOC told that commercial banks, which provide quotes for the Central Bank to calculate the daily fixing, will decide by themselves whether to include the “counter-cyclical factor” in their quotes. This means that the regulator may have suspended efforts in countering against sentiment-driven volatility in Yuan rates. Following the move, Yuan jumped against the U.S. Dollar, down -0.62% as of 4:30pm ET. USD/CNH 1-Day Prepared by Renee Mu. Behind this move, there is a reason. In ...
Shares of steelmaker AK Steel (AKS) are having a rough day after an analyst at Jefferies lowered his rating on shares. LEVERAGE TO CYCLE MAY UNDERWHELM: Seth Rosenfeld and his team at Jefferies downgraded shares of AK Steel to Hold from Buy in a note this morning. Rosenfeld said he sees the company’s move away from its past reliance on spot sales to longer-term contracts as a long-term positive, but noted “it leaves the company with only limited exposure to current spot price enthusiasm.” Additionally, the auto recovery anticipated may help sales but contract pricing from the car makers may be disappointing, he added. RAW MA...
WTI/RBOB prices soared once again today amid hopes for an 8th straight week of crude draws (and overall stockpiles near 5y average levels). API did not disappoint with a massive 11.19mm crude draw (biggest since Sept ’16) and continued builds in gasoline and distillates. WTI Knee-jerked to the highs of the day. “The market is anticipating a pretty good draw in the crude oil storage number,” Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York, said by telephone. API Crude 11.19mm (-421k exp) – biggest draw since Sept 2016 Cushing -2.156mm (-1.5mm exp) Gasoline +4.685mm (+3.25mm exp) Distillates +4.635mm...