The Post-DOL world is here. Despite delays, certain elements of the fiduciary rule are already in place. With full implementation scheduled for July 2019, figuring out how to deal with the fiduciary rule is the top priority for many firms and advisors. Here’s how you turn this regulatory bombshell to your advantage. Don’t Fight the Inevitable Many of the largest investment managers have already made changes to comply with the fiduciary rule. For example, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC) moved clients from commission-based accounts to fee-based ones. Fidelity has been aggressive in positioning itself as a fiduciary to retirement pl...
Oil prices pulled back after Brent Crude hit its $70 objective and Chinese crude oil imports hit a record high but was a bit shy of expectations, but still strong as global demand is surging, global supply is falling and then there is the dollar. The dollar index hit the lowest level since September and the Euro surged to a three-year high that may inspire risk on buying in oil and other commodities. The oil super cycle that was born in a sea and flood of oversupply is now becoming clearer to most of the oil bears. And then there is that weak dollar that should support oil and inspire more demand for oil in Europe and other countries as their...
The Euro jumped to a three-year high on Friday following the preliminary agreement reached by Angela Merkel led political party with another party to form a coalition government that has stalled the administration for months. The Euro rose against most of the G10 currencies after the report was made public, breaking the 1.2116 resistance level for the first time in 3 years. This, coupled with the report that the European Central Bank is considering adjusting its monetary policy to reflect strong economic growth in the region improved the Euro currency outlook. As previously projected, a sustained break of key resistance level, 1.2116, will l...
Following deflationary prints in import prices and producer prices, core consumer prices came in modestly hotter than expected. Core CPI printed +1.8% YoY – highest since April 2017 – as shelter costs re-acclerate. Headline SPI rose just 0.1% MoM (as expected) but notable slower than the 0.4% MoM rise in November. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in December, its largest increase since January 2017. The recent (silver lining) trend in lower shelter cost growth ended with a modest rise MoM and YoY in both Shelter and Rent inflation… Along with the shelter index, the indexes for medical car...
Welcome to 2018 – a year that will be the culmination of at least 105 years of mismanagement of the Western financial system by governments, central bankers and the elite. 2018 will be a year of major volatility in many markets. Stocks are now in a melt-up phase and before the major bear markets start in virtually all countries around the world, we are likely to see the final exhaustion moves which could be substantial. The year will also be marked by inflation increasing a lot faster than expected. This will include higher interest rates, much higher commodity prices, like food and oil as well as a falling dollar. And many base metals will...
The US dollar index (DX) fell to a three-month low yesterday. The US currency fell against the major currencies. Yesterday, consumer price indices were published, the values of which were lower than forecasted expectations. The US dollar is also under pressure due to the increase in the number of jobless claims. Today will be important for the US currency, as data on retail sales and consumer prices will be published. Although the producer price index turned out to be worse than the forecasted values, and petrol prices fell, investors expect that the retail sales figures turn out to be good. According to the account of the ECB December meetin...
Gold has reached the full ATR projection boosted by the positive EUR flow and weaker USD. According to Admiral Correlation Matrix, we see a very positive correlation between EUR/USD and Gold on last 500 H1 bars. At this point, we could see a retracement from the top 1333.40 and if the price breaks 1326.70 to the downside, next target might be 1320 zone. However, if the price breaks above 1334 then we could see 1341 before subsequent retracement happens. Today is Friday so watch out for profit taking. W L3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support) W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance) W H4 – Weekl...
Yesterday, the price of WTI and Brent crude oil reached new three-year highs. The recent surge is attributed to four reasons. First, this week, the American Petroleum Institute reported a huge withdrawal of 11.2 million barrels of crude oil. Second, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data showing a reduction of 4.9 million barrels of oil. In the United States, the number of rigs has also fallen to 742. Third, oil traders anticipate that Trump will start the process of exiting the Iran Nuclear deal opening a path to new sanctions. Fourth, around the world, the economies are growing which is increasing the demand for crude oil...
Below looks at the ratio of Silver to Gold over the past 30-years. Metals bulls historically receive a bullish message when this ratio is moving higher. Back in 2011, the ratio hit highs that took place in the early 1980’s and its been downhill for Gold and Silver ever since. Could the long-term trend in metals be about to change? The decline in the ratio now has it testing 20-year support line (1), which has held several times over the past 20-years. Over the past couple of years, the ratio has tested line support line (1) at (2), which has held. While testing line (1), the ratio could be creating a bullish inverse head & shoulders pa...