Another year another datapoint… Regular readers will be familiar with the first chart which shows the average daily returns for the S&P 500 across the year against the average level of the VIX across the year. This stockmarket seasonality map has been updated to include the 2017 data and the same conclusions and cautions hold. In this article we review this chart and explore seasonality patterns across a few key asset classes. The first thing to note about seasonality however is that it is imperfect, and can break down at times. That’s why I often say that seasonality should probably be one of the final factors you look at...
Wednesday was all about China. “China?! China.” U.S. investors woke up to the news that Beijing is considering “slowing or halting” Treasury purchases and the knee-jerk reaction was visible everywhere. Yields spiked (only to completely retrace as Treasurys pared losses following a solid 10Y auction): Gold rose: The dollar careened lower and EURUSD jumped (one natural way for the Chinese to diversify would be to increase their allocation of euro debt): And futs dipped: You’ll note that China may be reminding Trump that they have a way to fight back in the event the administration gets “tough” on trade. For more on wha...
386 Days Above The 200 Day Moving Average The record for consecutive new highs to start a year has been tied in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 as stocks rallied again on Tuesday. As you can see from the chart below, the S&P 500 is in the 2nd longest streak where it has been above its 200 day moving average. Going back to 1957, this bull market has the top two records as the previous one ended in 2014 at 475 days. Going almost a record period without a 5% correction makes it almost impossible for the S&P 500 to fall below its 200 day moving average. This recent rally has caused the CNN fear and greed index to reach 76 out of 100 wh...
The U.S. Chemical is witnessing continued investments, strengthening export markets and robust demand across key-end markets like electronics, automotive and construction. These factors have helped the industry outpace the broader market over the past year despite many headwinds including sluggishness in China, weak demand in agriculture and damaging effects of the hurricanes. Industry Performance The Zacks Chemicals Diversified industry has outperformed the broader market over a year. The industry has gained around 30.7% over this period, topping S&P 500’s corresponding return of roughly 21.5%. Investments Continues to Drive Growth ...
A mixed trend within Asian trading as the Nikkei, ASX and SENSEX whilst gains were registered in the Hang Seng and Shanghai. That said, volumes were light but the negative trend was supported by the positive move in the Japanese Yen. The currency traded back to the low 111’s as speculation that the BOJ removing the punch bowl would result in rising rates supporting the currency. This news weighed on the Nikkei which closed down -0.3%, commodities hurt the ASX with a close at the days lows. China saw the release of positive economic data (PPI and CPI) helping the Hang Seng close with yet another positive day. Europe followed much of Asia’s...
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) stock is back on a steady upward march on Wednesday after ending Tuesday in the red. The year started with a rerun of the rumor about Apple buying Netflix, but analysts who are truly bullish on Netflix stock see plenty of other reasons to buy it despite the nosebleed valuation. jgryntysz / Pixabay Too much noise for Netflix stock? In a note on Wednesday, MKM Partners analyst Rob Sanderson reiterated his Buy rating and $245 price target for Netflix stock, advising investors not to overthink things when it comes to the streaming firm. He feels that all the talk about competition, consolidation in the media space (due t...
The day started off with some excitement… But by the close all was forgotten… China put the fear of god into a few bond traders this morning…(30Y spiked 5bps higher only to close down 1bps on the day) And prompted the herd-like response proclaiming that this is it – bond yields are blowing out. However, thanks to a super-strong 10Y auction, bonds were bid back into the green leaving 10Y yields lower on the day… And the yield curve flattened dramatically… All the major US equity indices closed lower (except for Trannies which ramped into the close), but were well off the lows… Equity futures show the ...
We’ve used data based on the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which publishes price data weekly on home heating oil in 38 states by dollar-per-gallon before taxes. Unlike natural gas and electricity, home heating oil is provided by independent retailers. The latest price of home heating oil nationwide is $3.18, up eleven cents from last week and up fifty cents since the beginning of the season. EIA’s heating oil data is seasonal – from October through March. Here’s a look at the series since its inception in 1990. The next chart shows a regional breakdown. As you can see, it’s extremely volatile. Anothe...
The headlines say wholesale sales were up month-over-month with inventory levels remaining elevated. Our analysis essentially agrees. Analyst Opinion of this month’s Wholesale Sales The improvement this month in the headline data was primarily due to durable goods. Overall, I believe the rolling averages tell the real story – and they improved this month. The current trends are accelerating (improving). Inventory levels remain elevated but below recessionary levels.. To add to the confusion, year-over-year employment changes and sales growth do not match. Note that Econintersect analysis is based on the change from one year ago. ...
How big of a deal was today’s “big” news out of China regarding the future of U.S. Treasury purchases? Well, that depends on who you ask and, to a certain extent, when you ask them. There’s something invigorating about a notable story crossing the wires first thing in the morning, so the tone of the early chatter out of U.S.-based commentators might well have reflected that glorious moment when the day’s first line of blow, shot of vodka, dose of caffeine starts to work its magic by jogging the old muse. Upon more sober reflection (and “sober” there depends on how you choose to go about finding your muse in the morning), thi...