InvestingHaven’s research team is on record with this 2018 stock market forecast: global stock markets will (largely) outperform U.S. stocks in 2018 and beyond. This is not only confirmed by the Emerging Markets New Major Bull Market 2018 Confirmation but also by the indicator which is shown on the chart below. The indicator which is the basis for our 2018 forecast is the ratio of the S&P 500 index versus global stock markets excluding the U.S. represented by the MSWORLD index (see chart). Already last year in April we found out that this ratio stopped its uptrend. The uptrend between January 2013 and April 2017 indicated that U.S. s...
In the Currency Strength table, the NZD was the strongest currency while the JPY was the weakest. There were some significant changes last week with the NZD gaining 4 points while the EUR, GBP, AUD and CAD lost 1 point. On a week to week basis the NZD, AUD and to a lesser extent the CAD showed a very good performance while the USD, JPY and to a lesser extent the GBP showed a very weak performance. When looking at the development at the end of last week, the NZD, AUD and CAD continued to perform very well and the EUR showed a good performance too. On the other hand, the USD and JPY remained weak and so did the GBP and CHF. Although some good ...
After taking a pause the last nine days of 2017, which almost pushed our risk gauges to the point of exiting stocks, a monster rally emerged to start off the year with the Dow Jones Industrials jumping over 2% and the Nasdaq 100 over 3% in the first week of trading. The laggard is small caps which was not able to close above all-time highs set in early December. If you annualize (you do the math) this week’s gains in the Nasdaq, it makes last year’s run look paltry. Depending on your political bent the appearance/reality dichotomy exhibited by the markets has never been greater. According to Trump and some of his supporters, the tax cuts ...
Bitcoin rang in the year with a Peter Thiel-inspired ramp following reports that the People’s Bank of China is preparing to crack down on bitcoin miners. In fact, Reuters reported that the PBOC had held a meeting about regulating bitcoin mining power use, an increasingly sensitive topic now that global bitcoin energy consumption is greater than what Qatar uses in a year. Unfortunately for bitcoiners across the world, the PBOC has called for establishing limits on the energy used by miners, sending the bitcoin price lower. Before news of the crackdown broke, we reported late last month that Winnipeg City, Manitoba, could become a hub for cry...
The investment climate is being shaped by two powerful forces. First, is the very accommodative policy stance. This includes the United States, where despite delivering the fifth rate hike in the cycle, adjusted by headline CPI, remains negative. The balance sheet has begun being reduced, financial conditions in the US are easier now than a year ago. The ECB’s bond purchase program, which has been cut in half to 30 billion euro a month starting now, is only the most visible part of its extraordinary monetary policy. Other elements include the minus 40 bp deposit rate, the full allotment of fixed rate refi operations, and the qua...
No one would deny that 2017 was a banner year for the markets…at year end, all the equity indices were close to their all time highs. Even the WSMSI (Working Capital Model Select Income Index) had a capital growth number approaching 12%. But, let’s step around Wall Street’s promotional pennants, and look at the numbers over the long term, say this century so far. You’ll recall that the period from 1999 through 2009 was dubbed “The Dismal Decade” by a Wall Street that just couldn’t cope with the idea that the “shock market” (collectively) could actually go backwards over such a long period ...
The Australian dollar extended its relentless rise, reaching the highest levels since October 2017. Can it move even higher? The big event of the upcoming week is the retail sales report. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI advanced to 51.5 points, implying better growth in Australia’s No. 1 trading partner. This joined positive figures from Australia and the weakness of the US dollar. The greenback ignored upbeat US figures as well as a balanced meeting minutes report from the Fed. Updates: AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Cl...
WHOIS is lining up to be the first victim of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). It may soon be no more. The Internet Corporation for the Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) is the international non-profit organization charged with defining rules that regulate domain registrations. ICANN requires registrars (like the Verisign’s and GoDaddy’s of the world) to transfer registrant contact information, like the registrant’s name, address and email address, for entry into the publicly available WHOIS database. Failure of a registrar to provide this information could result in the registar losing ICANN accreditation. Now enter the...
It is hard to find a “talking head” in the media that isn’t able to justify the persistent rally in the major indexes and more recently the Dow Industrial Average crossing 25,000. In short, they are always able to offer that the end is justified by the means. With the end being Dow 25,295 as of Friday, Jan. 5, the means or explanation has been the potential readjusted earnings outlook higher. But who cares about the Dow Industrial Average anymore right? I’d certainly concede to the inherent sentiment displayed for what equates to 30 equities, but it doesn’t mean there isn’t a broader sentiment similarly displayed for equities wi...
The U.S. gold market suffered a net deficit this year compared to a small surplus in 2016. This was quite interesting because U.S. physical gold demand will be down considerably this year. In 2016, total U.S. gold demand was 212 metric tons versus an estimated 150 metric tons this year. The majority of the decline in U.S. gold demand is from the physical bar and coin sector that is down 56% in the first three quarters of 2017 compared to the same period last year. So, why will the U.S. gold market suffer a deficit if gold demand is down sharply this year? Well, it seems as if the culprit is the huge increase in net gold exports. Last year, th...