On Wednesday in “The Bernie Madoff Market,” we described how 2017 was so unusual, the gains so predictable, the consistency so implausible, that if global equities were a fund, regulators would suspect it might be a ponzi scheme. That assessment was inspired by the following quote from SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne: Not only did global equity markets perform well during 2017 (MSCI World delivered a total return of 20.1%), but they did so with such low volatility and consistency that if this were a fund, it would perhaps merit a visit from the authorities to check exactly what you were up to! Exactly. So if you’re in an index fund, you no...
As California joins the list of states that have legalized recreational marijuana, limited access to banking services continues to be a problem for producers, retailers, and other businesses in this rapidly growing sector. Because marijuana businesses cannot, in most cases, open bank accounts, accept credit cards, or make electronic payments, the sector remains largely cash based, with all the drawbacks that entails. The problem is felt by businesses that deal in medical as well as recreational cannabis. Charlie Wilson, whose company Green Bits provides management and compliance services to marijuana-related business, puts it this way in a ...
Hurricanes continue to impact claims taking procedures in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 239 K to 242 K (consensus 240,000), and the Department of Labor reported 250,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 238,250 (reported last week as 237,750) to 241,750. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014. Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims This marks 144 consecuti...
New analysis by Willis Towers Watson presents a case for the strengthening funding status of the largest US Corporate Pensions. According to the insurance and advisory company, the end of 2017 saw the funded status of these US firm’s pension to be highest it has been in recent memory. US corporate pensions have not seen these levels in funding since 2013. [REITs] geralt / Pixabay The report analyzed the pension plan data for 389 Fortune 1000 companies that sponsor US Defined benefit plans that had a fiscal-year end date in December. The report found that the average plan’s funding status had a 2% increased for 2017 from 2016- 83% to...
Veteran value investor Jeremy Grantham put a missive up on his firm’s website yesterday outlining his view that we won’t see an imminent end to the US bull market. He expects a melt-up, not a meltdown. But Grantham goes on to say that we will see an asset bubble implosion in 2019, with as much as 50% downside. Some thoughts below My macro view Before I get into Grantham’s piece, let me say that a lot of what he is saying mirrors what I am saying from a macro perspective. First, you need to see an economic catalyst for a bear market. I’m not talking about flash crashes or even the infamous 1987 crash. Longer term-bear markets are the r...
Shares of Perrigo (PRGO) are on the rise after Deutsche Bank analyst Gregg Gilbert told investors in a research note that Amazon (AMZN) has begun to sell a number of over-the-counter healthcare products, sourced by the company, under a brand called “Basic Care.” AMAZON ‘BASIC CARE’ SOURCED BY PERRIGO: In a research note this morning, Deutsche Bank’s Gilbert told investors that in recent months, Amazon has begun to sell a number of over-the-counter healthcare products, sourced by Perrigo, under a brand called “Basic Care.” Such a practice is commonly referred to as “white-labeling,” where a...
Gold still faces its broader upside pressure as it saw a rejection of lower prices on Thursday. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,300.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,290.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,280.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,270.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,320.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,330.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,340.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,350.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesti...
According to a Goldman Sachs report, the global ride-hailing market is expected to grow from $36 billion in 2017 to $285 billion by 2030. The average number of ride-hailing trips a day globally are expected to grow from 15 million in 2017 to 97 million by 2030. The ride-hailing companies are expected to charge an average 23% commission on the gross sales, translating to net revenues of $65 billion by 2030 for the industry. While Uber continues to remain the market leader in the industry, its recent troubles have helped drive usage for competitors, such as Lyft, to higher levels. Lyft may even beat Uber to an IPO listing this year. Lyft’s G...
While Ethereum has lost its second place position to Ripple and was clearly left behind, its value is still on the rise. ETH/USD extended its gains and reached a high of $1063 according to the data on Bittrex. After the initial rise, ETH/Dollar slipped a bit, but it remains up on the day. Taking a broader look, we can see that the market capitalization of Ethereum has reached 12 digits, surpassing $100 billion. For comparison, Ripple stands at around $150 billion and bitcoin at around $250 billion. So, Ethereum is worth some 40% of bitcoin and combined, Ripple and Ethereum equal bitcoin. Vitalik Buterin, the person behind Etehreum, announc...
AUDUSD stays in a rising price channel on its 4-hour chart and remains in the uptrend from 0.7501. As long as the price is in the channel, the uptrend could be expected to continue and next target would be at 0.7900 area. Only a clear break below the channel support could signal completion of the uptrend....