This past weekend, I discussed the current extension of the market. To wit: “In the short-term, the market trends are CLEARLY bullish, very overbought, but nonetheless bullish.” “As such, our portfolios remain ‘long’ on the equity side of the ledger…for now. “ The current momentum behind the market advance is clearly bullish, and with the “smell of tax reform” in the air, there is little to derail the bulls before year-end. As I previously wrote, I am still somewhat suspicious of the markets going into 2018. As I laid out over the last couple of weeks, I believe the risk of “tax-related” selling is a strong pos...
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market continues to be bullish longer-term, even though it is rather noisy in general. You can see that I have a nice uptrend line that I have marked on the chart, and it has in fact offered support again. We will probably go looking toward $60 over the longer term, and I believe the pullbacks will continue to offer buying opportunities, but I also recognize that there will be a lot of noise. If we were to break down below the $55 handle, that should send this market down to the $52 handle, and I think that the volatility will continue. Pay attention to the US dollar, with the Federal Reserve speaking on Wednes...
The year is winding down, which means that we’re knee-deep in newly minted 2018 investment outlooks. All the usual caveats apply, of course, but there’s a generous helping of perspective too. As an example, here’s a select sampling from recent publications that caught our eye: “We think valuations look very stretched. That doesn’t mean they can’t go higher than where they are today, but our view lends more to downside risk than upside potential. At some point the market is going to care about geopolitical issues or dysfunction in Washington. It has a way of suddenly sneaking up on us and issues that were ignored start to come up....
Previous: On Monday the 11th of December, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly down, leaving a wick with a high of 1.1812 before dropping to 1.1769. With a bare economic calendar, market activity at the beginning of this week has got off to a slow start. Traders based their decisions mostly on the dynamics of US bond yields. In Europe, US 10Y bond yields dropped to 2.354%, before recovering to 2.391% in the US session. Growth for bond yields means growth for the dollar. Day’s news (GMT+3): 07:30 Japan: tertiary industry index (Nov). 09:30 France: nonfarm payrolls (Q4). 12:30 UK: CPI (Nov), retail price index (Nov), PPI input (No...
After opening the day marginally lower, share markets in India witnessed selling pressure throughout the day and ended the day on a weak note. Losses were seen across most sectors with stocks in the telecom sector and stocks in the realty sector leading the losses. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood lower by 228 points (down 0.7%) and the NSE Nifty closed down by 82 points (down 0.8%). The BSE Mid Cap index ended the day down 1%, while the BSE Small Cap index ended the day down by 0.7%. Asian stock markets too, finished in red. As of the most recent closing prices, the Hang Seng was down by 0.59% and the Shanghai Comp...
Ethereum Market Overview: Switzerland’s two major banks, UBS and Credit Suisse along with others are about to improve their data quality by using Ethereum. Meanwhile, a potentially dangerous fake version of MyEtherWallet is in the App Store. How is the Ethereum market reacting? Here is a quick overview. Ethereum Market Overview After a big day for Bitcoin in the futures market, Ethereum still struggles to break above the key resistance level of $484. Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Many investors consider it Bitcoin’s direct competitor. However, Ethereum’s price is nowhere as volatile as Bitcoin. Ther...
This week Doug Noland joins the podcast to discuss what he refers to as the “granddaddy of all bubbles”. Noland, a 30-year market analyst and specialist in credit cycles, currently works at McAlvany Wealth Management and is well known for his prior 16-year stint helping manage the Prudent Bear Fund. He certainly shares our views that prices in nearly every financial asset class have become remarkably distorted due to central bank intervention, first with Greenspan’s actions to backstop the markets in the late-1980’s, and more recently (and more egregiously) with the combined central banking cartel’s massive and ...
EUR/USD is sticking to the well-known ranges and is not going anywhere fast. But what will happen around the end of the year? Here is the view from Nordea: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Nordea FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook into year-end and warns of the possible negative impact on the pair from year-end liquidity shrink. “Basis swaps have been on the move recently, widening aggressively and making USD funding costlier. From now and until the end of this year the usage of the Fed’s reverse repo facility could spike as much as 400 bn $, effectively withdrawing USD liquidity from the banking system. This is hel...
The USD/CAD has formed a cup and handle formation, and the price is consolidating between Daily camarilla levels. Because the handle in this pattern formation usually has a downward slope, we might see a break below 1.2830 towards 1.2816 and 1.2779. However h1 momentum or 4h close above 1.2864 could target 1.2892, 1.2911 and 1.2939. Watch for a handle break and continuation towards mentioned targets. W H3 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance) W H4 – Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance) D H4 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance) D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support) D L4 ...
It seems everyone is talking about Bitcoin these days. On ZeroHedge, I’d say easily half the articles are crypto-related. And why not? The equity market has become a bore. How much can you say about a market which basically goes up about half a percent day after day until the end of time? I’ve anchored my life to discussing equity markets, God help me, so having something that actually moves up AND down is exciting and novel after the past eight years. Of course, daring to predict ANYTHING about cryptos is a fool’s errand. Just a few months ago, a Bitcoin trader and “expert” offered up this prediction for the second half of the...