August is over, which means that Eric Peters, the CIO of One River Asset Management, is back to doing what he is so very good at: distilling the week’s events and latest financial and economic trends into pithy, one-paragraph aphorisms. Without further ado, here is an anecdotal excerpt from his latest weekend notes. Scary Movie I love movies. Scary ones especially. Keep your happy endings, give me chainsaws. Meat hooks. I’ll never forget ERM in 1992. That was my first real snuff flick as a Lehman prop trader. The Italians never stood a chance in the film, they never do. Show me an Italian who can resist a dark woodshed and I’ll show...
With the EURUSDpair rejecting higher to close lower the past week, more decline is envisaged. Resistance comes in at 1.1900 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1950 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.2000 level where a break will expose the 1.2050 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1800 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1750 level. A break here will aim at the 1.1700 level. A cut though here will open the door for more strength towards 1.1650 level. All in all, EURUSD faces further downside pressure on a corrective pullback....
For the fervent follower of Gold, to say it’s been “superb” year-to-date may seem at first blush an excessively exaggerated stretch, given the above panel’s showing us that price is but one point above where it was this time a year ago — and to just be in sync with currency debasement — ought be at 2716 rather than at yesterday’s (Friday’s) settle of 1330. Indeed to some, “paltry” might appear a more proper adjective, even as this is Gold’s highest weekly settle since mid-September a year ago. Still, let’s go inside the numbers. Through August and a day in 2017, Gold i...
This week will have a slightly heavier news agenda than last week, but there is little key U.S. data due so the overall effect may be the same. The agenda will be dominated by monthly policy commentaries and bid rates from the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Therefore, volatility this week should be higher than it was last week, helped by the fact that the typically thin summer period is over. It may be that developments in the Korean peninsula cause a more active market than would otherwise be expected. The market will probably be most active on Thursday, and Wednesday to a lesser extent. Monday i...
Four central banks from high income countries hold policy-making meetings in the first full week of September. They are the Reserve Bank of Australia, Sweden’s Riksbank, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. Investors focus on the latter two. To be sure, no one expects the ECB to change rates or policy. At most, some guidance into its intentions after current buying commitment is fulfilled at the end of the year. The Bank of Canada is the only major central bank that could raise rates. Since early June, the Bank of Canada put the market on notice that it no longer judged that the economy warranted the level of ac...
Here is our latest update on the stock trading technique called ‘Buying Dividends,’ also commonly referred to as ‘Dividend Capture.’ This is the process of buying stocks before the ex dividend date and selling the stock shortly after the ex date at about the same price, yet still being entitled to the dividend. This technique generally works only in bull markets, and can work in flat or choppy markets, but you need to avoid the technique during bear markets. In order to be entitled to the dividend, you have to buy the stock before the ex-dividend date, and you can’t sell the stock until after the ex date. The actual dividend may ...
Through no fault of my own I’ve recently found myself at the heart of the mainstream, short- volatility (VOL), media headlines. Ok, maybe that’s a bit disingenuous and I should take a little bit more ownership of the role I’ve played over the last several years regarding the volatility/VIX trade. I have written several dozen articles, several white papers that were sold to many an institution and hedge fund and participated in the social media realm with respect to trading volatility and VIX derivatives, namely VIX-leveraged ETPs. So when I woke up one morning to an email from a New York Times reporter… well it wasn’t expected or ...
Uranium miners are close to become very bullish. In fact, so far, it seems that uranium miners have followed a textbook case of a mega breakout. If we look back, over the last 9 months, we see a secular breakout pattern. As annotated on the chart: “1” is the breakout point, where the long term bear market (which started in 2011) got broken to the upside a strong rally followed “2” was the test of the breakout level and the falling channel “3” is the ultimate confirmation of the breakout pattern Spotting “1” is not the most challenging part. We spotted a Very Bullish Sign In Uranium Miners last November. We also spotted the b...
This week I’ll focus on gold and silver. Here’s gold’s step sum chart going back to November 2010. For almost a year (November 2010 to August 2011) gold’s step sum saw an amazing ascent; rising from 220 to 275 (55 net advancing days) in a ten month period. That’s a lot, but then that’s what a buying panic looks like in a step sum plot. Then came 22 August 2011, with gold closing at $1,888.70, and that was it for the advance. The way to understand a step sum chart is realize the price plot (Blue Plot) is market reality, the simple fact of whether the market is trending up or down. The step sum plot (Red Plot) is a mark...
One of the tougher things around is learning the art of surfing. I can recall the phrase, “Getting Up,” as being the hardest part for surfers, that of pushing yourself to stand up on the board while the wave is forming in order to find “the tube.” I never was able to get up, but I tried, and really made a big effort one year in Mexico, but alas, it was never meant to be. Still, having participated a bit in trying to catch a wave, in many ways, today’s investing is very much like surfing. Why you may ask? Both institutional and individual investors are trying to find areas in the business world which are undergoing a huge gro...