I need to see a bit more follow through confirmation in the days ahead, but it sure looks to me that the USD found support at the 50ma and found a short-term Trading or Daily Cycle Low (TCL/ DCL) last Friday on day 24. If I am correct, yesterday was day 1 of the Trading Cycle #2 and this also means that the USD has found its longer-term 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) back in early September near the 7-month mark. My first chart is a close up daily that shows the price action. My second chart is a 2 year weekly showing the overhead resistance the USD will need to overcome if it is to test or breach my Red Yearly downtrend line....
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market continues to show strength, and now that the Iraqi Army has entered Kurdistan, there are a lot of concerns when it comes to the disruption of oil around the world. That being the case, we did see a bit of a rally, but I would point out the fact that we have failed to make a fresh, new high, and I think that there is more than enough resistance above to keep this market from going any higher. If we do breakout to the upside, the market will probably go looking towards the $55 level, which I think is the absolute top in the market. A pullback from here makes a lot of sense, but I think there is plenty of s...
Analysts give Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) a lot of credit these days. The company can single-handedly alter a business environment overnight … or at least that’s what analysts would lead you to believe. Amazon’s latest market-moving announcement was that it was close to deciding on entering the online pharmaceutical drug marketplace. Let me repeat that. Amazon is “close to deciding.” It hasn’t even decided yet. But that didn’t stop stocks like CVS Health Corp. (NYSE: CVS) from dropping over 7% in the days following the news. It’s as if analysts think whatever Amazon touches is automatically changed forever. That’s si...
The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook, raised the global economic outlook for 2017 to 3.6% and to 3.7% for 2018. This was a slight upgrade from the previous estimates of 3.5% and 3.6% respectively. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook report is released twice a year. In its report, the IMF said that the global economy had strengthened and was broad-based. However, the growth remains incomplete, the report cautioned as it cited low wage growth and challenges from commodity exporters. IMF calls out the UK. Forecasts lowered The IMF called out the UK calling it a “notable exception” to a globally improving economy. The IMF cut the...
Is gold dead? Over the last three years, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has lollygagged in a sideways direction. I’d honestly rather watch paint dry than analyze a gold chart. Given such an uninspired performance, I don’t believe that gold warrants a major weighting in your portfolio. Of course, my assertion above constitutes sacrilege to any “gold bug.” So let me explain… Please don’t confuse a gold ETF with owning physical gold. A gold ETF is a piece of paper that represents a loose claim (at best) on gold. Vaulted gold, however, is real — and can be called upon in any crisis event. Still, some folks will insist on owning prox...
After opening the day in the red, share markets in India have traded on a volatile note and are presently trading below the dotted line. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note, with stocks in the capital goods sector and stocks in the realty sector witnessing maximum buying interest, while stocks in the banking sector are leading the losses. The BSE Sensex is down up by 56 points (down 0.2%) and the NSE Nifty is trading down by 8 points (down 0.1%). Meanwhile, the BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.2%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.3%. The rupee is trading at 64.90 to the US$. In news from stocks in ...
As traders, one of the most important traits we can adopt is humility. We have to embrace our fallibility. Markets are complex systems. We cannot know all the relevant variables and causal relationships. Therefore, when we make a market prediction or place a trade, we can’t truly know if the subsequent outcome occurred for the reasons we believed, for reasons we’re unaware of, or if it was all just random noise. This presents us with a dilemma: We must act on incomplete information and then iterate off results where we can’t fully know the causes. So we never really know if we were right for the right reasons, right for the wrong rea...
AT40 = 69.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ended 12 straight days overboughtAT200 = 59.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 9.9Short-term Trading Call: bullish (see caveats below) Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), slipped below the overbought threshold at 70%. The overbought period ended at 12 days. Yet, the trading action in general did not confirm the bearish implications of this drop. The S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq printed a new marginal all-time high. Largely thanks to Apple (AAPL)...
Gold prices moved lower on Monday as the dollar clawed back some of its recent losses. In economic news, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that manufacturing activity in the region jumped to 30.2 from 24.4 a month earlier. The XAU/USD pair is currently trading at $1294.15, slightly lower than the opening price of $1295.19. Gold has rebounded nearly 2.7% since hitting a two-month low of $1260.51 on October 6. XAU/USD was unable to hold above the strategic $1302-$1300 area and as a result, prices headed back to $1292-$1289 as anticipated. Although the market found support in this area, it might be in danger unless prices get back ab...
U.S. Bancorp (USB – Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2017 results on Oct 18, before the opening bell. The bank’s revenues and earnings are anticipated to be up year over year. Why a Likely Positive Surprise? Our proven model shows that U.S. Bancorp is likely to beat on earnings in the third quarter. This is because the company has the combination of the two key ingredients for a possible earnings beat — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or at least 3 (Hold). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Zacks ESP: The Ear...