ADP reported non-farm private jobs growth at 237,000. Last month’s employment growth was significantly revised upward. Analyst Opinion of ADP Employment Situation This month the rate of ADPs private employment year-over-year growth remained in the tight range seen over the last year. ADP employment has not been a good predictor of BLS non-farm private job growth. The market expected from Bloomberg / Econoday 145,000 to 200,000 (consensus 182,000) versus the 237,000 reported. These numbers are all seasonally adjusted; In Econintersect‘s August 2017 economic forecast released in late June, we estimated non-farm private payroll grow...
Oil Short Term Elliott Wave suggests that the decline from 8/1 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave Structure where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 46.46 and Minute wave ((x)) ended at 48.76. Oil has since made a new low below Minute wave ((w)) at 46.46 suggesting the next leg lower has started. Wave ((y)) is in progress and also subdivided as a double three where Minutte wave (w) ended at 46.15 and Minutte wave (x) is proposed complete at 46.96. Near term, while bounces stay below Minute wave ((x)) at 48.76, Oil has scope to extend lower towards 43.92 – 44.85. This is an inflection area where Minute wave ((w)) = Minute wave ((y))...
The main question everyone asks nowadays is why are crude oil prices falling? Many traders are asking the same question over and over again, and so far, there is no logical answer for such question. If you are reading this article and you are asking it too, you might get the right answer, even if you can’t agree with it. Despite the fact that the global inventories are declining, OPEC suggests another extension of the current deal, even after the huge storm “Harvey” which hit Texas. Falling Inventories Here we will be talking about the facts. The US Crude Oil Inventories have been declining for the past seven weeks, which is the sec...
China Lodging Group, Limited (HTHT – Free Report) is cashing in on the growing Chinese middle class that wants to travel. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) is expected to see revenue grow in the double digits in 2017. China Lodging operates and franchises 3,541 hotels, or 359,530 rooms, in 369 cities in China. It’s a mid-cap company with a market cap of $7.75 billion. It focuses on economy and midscale hotel segments including brands such as Hi Inn, HanTing Hotel, Elan Hotel, JI Hotel, Starway Hotel, Joya HOtel, CitiGo Hotel, VUE Hotel, Crystal Orange Hotel, Orange Hotel Select, Orange Hotel and Manxin Hotel. Its business include...
The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP August estimate of 237K new nonfarm private employment jobs, an increase over July’s 201K, which was an upward revision of 23K. The 237K estimate came in above the Investing.com consensus of 183K for the ADP number. The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 180K nonfarm new jobs (the actu...
With only brief positive incursions, the Pound Sterling continued its slide versus the Euro as the ongoing negotiations for a Brexit agreement sideline potential investors. On Tuesday, the Pound had fallen to a 10-year trough against the common currency and was only able to recover a portion of lost ground in today’s trading. This month alone, Sterling has lost more than 3% and is poised to record a fourth straight loss. One currency strategist in Switzerland pointed out that investors were remaining clear of the Pound, despite the fact that it looks good on a valuation basis. As reported at 11:14 am (BST) in London, the EUR/GBP was trading...
Ok, dammit. There is apparently no stopping the yuan. Back in late May/early June, the PBoC engineered an epic short squeeze. That effort included the introduction of an absurdly opaque “counter-cyclical adjustment factor” that, attempts to spin it notwithstanding, amounted to a partial rollback of the liberalization push instituted in August 2015. The short squeeze could have been meant to appease Trump, but I would argue the more likely explanation was that China wanted to get out ahead of the June Fed hike. In March, the PBoC hiked OMO rates hours after the Fed, presumably in order to avoid a scenario that would have seen rate differen...
Demand for safe-haven Treasuries kicked into high gear yesterday, which cut the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down to its lowest level in nearly ten months. What’s driving this key rate down? A combination of factors, ranging from renewed market jitters over the latest missile test by North Korea to concerns that Hurricane Harvey will take a toll on US economic growth to a weak run of inflation in 2017. A new survey of economists advises that the storm will reduce GDP growth in the third quarter by 0.2 percentage point, according to the median projection. “Rebuilding would then give growth a bump in the fourth quarter by the same amoun...
A slightly stronger level of inflation, at least in the European standard “Harmonized” version, HICP. Prices rose by 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y, another acceleration that will push euro-zone inflation higher. Price rises stood at 1.5% y/y beforehand in the HICP and 1.7% in the national level. So, the euro-zone inflation level could be higher in the publication tomorrow. In turn, the ECB could feel more confident in the expected taper decision next week. EUR/USD is ticking up to 1.2930, after the downfall from the highs. The pair made a significant break above 1.20 and all the way to 1.2070 before making a total U-turn. Support awaits at 1.187...