The latest data that tracks job turnover shows that the voluntary quit rate has been rising steadily as the job market continues to improve. Economists tend to think that a rising quit rate is a sign that the U.S. recovery is finally picking up momentum because, as the theory goes, workers are getting confident enough to take on the risk of changing jobs or leaving the work force altogether. The voluntary quit rate is another useful indicator which shadows job turnover in the American labor market. That is, the quit rate is a useful measure of how much confidence workers feel and how many opportunities they have to switch to a more attractive...
No, I am not talking about “Hurricane Harvey” which will likely be the first hurricane to strike the Texas coast since 2008, but rather the potential for another “debt ceiling” debacle brewing in Washington. Just recently, Goldman Sachs raised its odds for a government shutdown from 33% to 50% which was further supported by recent statements from President Trump that he would be willing to risk a Government “shutdown” to get his border wall funded. However, as Axios.com noted yesterday: “A top Republican source put the chance as high as 75%: ‘The peculiar part is that almost everyone I talk to on the Hill agrees that ...
Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders A 6.0% decline in orders for U.S. Durable Goods may prop up EUR/USD going into the end of the month as it dampens the outlook for growth and inflation. Why Is This Event Important: Another batch of mixed data prints may dampen the appeal of the greenback as it encourages the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to carry the current policy into 2018. Even though ‘the Committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon,’ Chair Janet Yellen may strike a more cautious tone at the Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming as many of...
The FT recently ran an article that states that “leading central banks now own a fifth of their governments’ total debt.” The figures are staggering. Without any recession or crisis, major central banks are purchasing more than $200 billion a month in government and private debt, led by the ECB and the Bank of Japan. The Federal Reserve owns more than 14% of the US total public debt. The ECB and BOJ balance sheets exceed 35% and 70% of their GDP. The Bank of Japan is now a top 10 shareholder in 90% of the Nikkei. The ECB owns 9.2% of the European corporate bond market and more than 10% of the main European countries’ total sovereign ...
TM editors’ note: This article discusses a penny stock and/or microcap. Such stocks are easily manipulated; do your own careful due diligence. Written by SmallCapPower.com The U.S. small cap stocks on our list have been growing earnings per share at more than 75% compounded over the past five years making for a potentially attractive investment opportunity. These stocks have a market capitalization between $100 million – $500 million. 1. Lee Enterprises, Incorporated (NYSE: LEE) Lee Enterprises owns various daily newspapers and a joint interest in several others. The Company also owns various weekly newspapers, shoppers, and specialt...
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market fell during the session on Thursday, reaching down towards the $47 level. However, there is a tropical storm that is changing over into a hurricane heading towards the Gulf Coast refineries, so will be interesting to see what happens next. If we get some type of massive storm on Friday and the weekend, it’s likely that we will see the market rally towards the $50 level, and perhaps even break above there. Otherwise, I think that rallies are to be sold. I also think that eventually when things calm down, the sellers will return as well. I am bearish of oil, because quite frankly we just don’t have the...
Besides the hilariously fabricated economic data and the whole central planning bit – both of which are now everywhere these days – the one most notable feature about China’s economy and capital markets are the constantly rolling, bursting and resurrecting asset bubbles: from housing, to stocks, to bonds, to commodities, to cryptocurrencies, to pretty much anything that isn’t nailed down and can be traded, and back to housing again, the lifecycle of a Chinese assets is best expressed in terms of its “tulipness”: how long before the swarming horde of Chinese bubble-chasers, armed with over $35 trillion in c...
Pound/yen continues producing lots of pips for traders. What’s next for the “dragon”? Here is the technical view from Credit Suisse. Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Credit Suisse FX Technical Strategy Research notes that GBP/JPY’s rejection of its downtrend from December 2016 has seen a sharp fall to complete a small top below 144.03, followed by a breach of both the uptrend from October 2016 and its 200-day average. “This should see the risk stay bearish, and we target the June low and 38.2% retracement of the October/December 2016 rally at 139.18/138.67. We would allow for a temporary hold here, but favor its removal ...
GBP/USD 4 hour The GBP/USD is testing the resistance line of the downtrend channel (red) after indeed bouncing near the round quarter support level of 1.2750. A bullish breakout could start wave A (purple) of a larger wave 2 (red) correction. A bearish break below support (blue) and the 1.2750 support could restart the downtrend within the channel. 1 hour The GBP/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) and could be starting a wave A (purple) correction if price manages to break above the next resistance trend lines and stay above support (blue). EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD is building an extended and complex correction within...
Hindsight is 20/20 and for years, investors have been following the advice of major names in finance who anticipated market collapse…or rather, were very vocal about it after the fact. While I doubt we are anywhere near a market collapse (at least not one caused by a major event which can happen any time), former Fed Chair, Alan Greenspan, warns that a bond market bubble is the biggest threat to the stock market right now. In an article from Investopedia, Greenspan was noted as saying according to the Fed Model (see below) US stocks are priced at one of the most attractive levels ever, at least for the moment, in relation to bond price...