While it was a dull week for FX futures positioning heading into (August) month-end, it was a much more interesting story in how the US dollar managed to overcome another spike down to fresh (20-month) lows on Monday, and then Friday’s disappointing (US) jobs report. After what seemed like such a bleak start to last week, the Dollar Index (DX) actually finished modestly higher, not only highlighting bullish technical divergence (daily RSI), but hinting of a temporary base for the oversold greenback. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report (as of August 29th) also pointed-out the continued gradual unwind of the popular (Japanese)...
USD/JPY The US dollar had a volatile session on Friday as the jobs number came out less than anticipated. Because of this, the markets sold off rather drastically, but found enough support to turn around and bounce above the 110 level again. By doing so, this shows the resiliency of this market but I also see a significant amount of resistance at the 111 level. Once we break above there, I feel that the market will probably go looking towards the top of the consolidated range, meaning that we should go to the 114.50 level. This market has been consolidating for some time, and quite frankly nothing that I’ve seen recently tells me that it’...
The European Central Bank does not like the strength of the euro. We know that already from the previous rate decision. President Mario Draghi tried to sound dovish but failed to convince markets. It does not mean that they are giving up. Further “sources,” say that the highly-anticipated decision about QE tapering could wait until December. These are the last days of the Autumn, so technically that would be within the timeframe that they set from the outset. Nevertheless, it would be a setback from expectations to make an announcement in September. Further “people with familiar with the matter,” said that the ECB is not pleased wit...
It’s dividend income update time. One of my favorite times of the month as I get to review my previous month of passive income received from my dividend income portfolios. Without rehashing the wild ride we experienced in the market last month, I could find comfort in one thing, my dividends. As we all know, the market may move up and down irrationally and seemingly on a whim while our dividends remain much more stable, reliable and predictable. Sure, dividends may not increase every year and a cut or elimination is even possible but the odds are greatly reduced when you diversify among different companies and sectors and focus on dividend ...
While stocks have been limping higher since around 2am ET (following headlines on an imminent ICBM launch) they remain lower from Friday’s close: But precious metals the biggest gainers of post-North Korean “hydrogen bomb” testing safe haven flows. Silver broke above resistance at early June highs to test $18 and the highest levels since April 25th. But that was clearly not acceptable to someone: At 0451ET, someone decided it would be an opportune time to dump over a quarter of a billion dollars notional of gold into the futures market… Taking out the Asia opening low stops. For now the gains in PMs are holding....
Over the past month, there’s a boring, tedious pattern that seems to be repeating itself: (1) The impoverished, backwards, freakish hermitage known as North Korea threatens the world with some ill-conceived rumblings about a nuclear weapon; (2) Worldwide markets (with ever-decreasing size) have a knee-jerk reaction; (3) When it’s clear that Kim Jung-un is completely full of crap, for the 398th time, things go back to normal within a few days (or hours…) and the market goes to new lifetime highs. We’ve got round three of this going right now on this holiday weekend… The initial reaction WAS the low of the day, and it’s been sorta k...
The RBA’s meeting this week is expected to go off without much fanfare. Overnight index swaps are pricing in exactly a 1% chance of a rate move at the coming meeting: 1% chance of a cut; 0% chance of a hike. In recent weeks, economic data has started to fall below expectations, with the Citi Economic Surprise Index for Australia dropping from +62.2 on June 15 to +35.8 today. At the last RBA meeting, policy officials expressed concern that the Australian Dollar itself was too strong and could interfere with their ability to achieve their policy goals. With both headline CPI and GDP running below +2%, there is little reason to suspect anythin...
A month ago, we wrote about the bitcoin fork. We described the fork: Picture a bank, the old-fashioned kind. Call it Acme (sorry, we watched too much Coyote and Road Runner growing up). A group of disgruntled employees leave. They take a copy of the book of accounts. They set up a new bank across the street, Wile E Bank. To win customers, they say if you had an account at Acme Bank, you now have an account at Wile, with the same balance! This fork came about from a disagreement among the bitcoin miners, those who control the blockchain and hence the currency. The equivalent of the disgruntled Acme Bank group left to form bitcoin cash, the e...
Good day to all….after an excellent Friday where we caught the bearish side in USDJPY …… #USDJPY https://t.co/EdOcLk7iI1 — Alexandros Yfantis (@alexanderYf) September 1, 2017 …and the bullish side of EURUSD since the lows from last Thursday… #EURUSD #bullish 61.8%, diverging and cloud support very close @ForexStopHunter #fx #forex pic.twitter.com/yz3zhBULQj — Alexandros Yfantis (@alexanderYf) August 31, 2017 the picture remains unchanged….EURUSD supported and USDJPY under pressure for a move below 109. EURUSD supported by the 4 hour Kumo and USDJPY breaking below the Kumo after giving a bearish signal by breaking the ascending...