A number of people have forwarded this Bloomberg article – Wall Street Banks Warn Downturn Is Coming – to me over the last couple of days. That fact alone is probably a good argument to ignore it but I can’t help but read articles like this if for no other reason than to know what the crowd is thinking. The gist of the article is that a bunch of sell side analysts think we are nearing the end of the current business cycle and that has them worried about stocks and credit. If that is true – that we are nearing the end of the cycle – then it is certainly reason for concern. The biggest stock market losses are generally associate...
Terrible housing data for the second day in a row, debt ceiling fears surging in bill markets, chaos in the energy complex as Hurricane Harvey nears landfall, more McConnell-Trump turmoil… and while stocks were lower, only Trannies really dropped… The market said… Video length: 00:00:04 Debt Ceiling Default Doubts continue to surge… Trannies were worst again but Small Caps managed gains… Futures show what an odd day it was – algos lifted equity futures bit by bit overnight into the cash open and then stocks were dumped… and then when Europe closed, buying resumed… Trannies also remain the on...
Shares of cable operator Charter Communications (CHTR) have been on a roll lately, rising more than 50% during the last 12 months. You would think after such a big run that the company must have had a dramatic change of fortune, but really it is just a traditional cable company offering customers bundles of services while consolidating smaller regional competitors. The story might sound a lot like Comcast (CMCSA) because they are pretty much in the same business. Comcast owns NBC Universal, so they have a content wing as well, but the two companies are the nation’s leading cable businesses in the United States, with nearly half of all U...
Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released for August, all were in expansion. Analyst Opinion of Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Kansas City Fed manufacturing has been one of the more stable districts and their index improved. Key internals were in expansion. Note that last month the hard data showed contraction whilst all of the Fed district surveys showed expansion. There were no market expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday. The reported value was 16. Any value below zero is contraction. z kansas_man.PNG The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the August Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice presiden...
A real estate investment partnership can work wonders, or it can be a nightmare. The challenge is finding the right investment partner. Find a real estate partner and there is a likelihood that you can complete twice as many deals or more. Some methods for finding the right fit include an online search, word of mouth, and real estate investment groups. Here are a few additional tips to help you make an informed decision when considering investing with a partner. Does the individual have their own source of capitalization? This is necessary because people make mistakes in real estate quite often. Investors need access to a lot of money, especi...
Market pullbacks to major moving averages provide a great opportunity to find the stocks and ETFs that will provide great trades when the market recovers or even before! Here are 3 patterns that will help identify which stocks or ETFs are market leaders, because when a market resumes its uptrend the leaders usually provide the best long trades....
The Dollar We don’t know for sure what caused the dollar’s weakness, but one aspect that is probably hurting the dollar is the accelerating growth in China, Japan, and Europe. Looking at future price performance, we must consider the possibility of a dollar rally. The chart below shows the speculative positioning in the dollar. When the positioning gets to the point where everyone is bearish, I get nervous because any news flowing the other way could cause a sharp reversal. Looking at the catalysts for a dollar rally, I would say strong economic reports especially a GDP report with a 3 handle can help the dollar. Another catalyst for the ...
If there is one thing you can say about markets, it is that they keep you on your toes. If you were sitting with a long position in GBP or USD toward the end of 2017, you had reason to hope that there would be more money in your pocket by mid-2017 than if you were short. However, the wheels of fortune turn, and we can see that clearly through a persistently weak USD and GBP that has become a mainstay in 2017 though for different reasons. For the USD, we see an apparent mispricing of a previously hawkish Fed getting repriced by the market as the Fed appears reluctant to admit their rate hike forecast was likely too optimistic, which has br...
Tomorrow could be a key breakout day for the EUR/USD. The market will be fixated on Jackson Hole speeches especially one by Mario Draghi. As we noted earlier today, “Mr. Draghi, on the other hand, must dampen any expectations of an immediate taper despite the fact that conditions in the Eurozone have improved materially and ultra – accommodative policy is no longer necessary. The ECB is keenly aware of a market overshoot vis a vis exchange rates and does not want to see EUR/USD trade above the 1.2000 level into Q4 of this year for fear of making exports from the region uncompetitive. Thus, Mr. Draghi’s task is in some ways more difficul...
Share price of Seagate Technology PLC (STX – Free Report) dropped to a new 52-week low of $30.60 yesterday, eventually closing a tad bit higher at $31.01. The underperformance can be attributed to the company’s disappointing fourth-quarter fiscal 2017 results. Non-GAAP earnings plunged 41% on a sequential basis, primarily due to a 10% decline in revenues. Revenues amounted to $2.41 billion, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.55 billion. We note that this pulled down current year earnings estimates over the last 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2018 declined 18.04% to $3.86 over the last 30 days. For fi...