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  • Finance 0

    Loonie Tests 2018 Lows As Canada Existing Home Sales Crash To 5 Year Lows

    The Canadian Dollar dropped, testing the lows of 2018, following CREA data showing existing home sales crashed to the lowest since 2013 and price appreciation slowed dramatically. Home sales via Canadian MLS® Systems were down 6.5% in February. This marks the second consecutive monthly decline following the record set in December 2017 and the lowest reading in nearly five years.     February sales were down from the previous month in almost three-quarters of all local housing markets, with large monthly declines in and around Greater Vancouver (GVA) and Greater Toronto (GTA). Toronto home sales are down 8.2% MoM! Vancouver home sales...
    On March 15, 2018 / By
  • Finance 0

    Jobless Claims Continue Their Downtrend

    Whenever you’re talking markets and charts, the last thing a bull wants to hear is the word downtrend. That is unless it relates to weekly Jobless Claims, and in the case of this indicator, they remain stuck in one of the most prolonged downtrends any of us will ever see. In this week’s report, first-time claims came in at 226K compared to expectations for 228K and last week’s level of 230K. This is the 9th straight week that claims have been below 250K, which is the longest streak since 1973. More importantly, though, it is the 158th straight week where claims have come in below 300K. Three years ago, it was considered an extraordinary...
    On March 15, 2018 / By
  • Finance 0

    High Quality Trading Is Episodic, Not Continuous

    There are two types of market returns. Alpha and beta. Beta is what you get for diversifying and passively holding the market. Alpha is the opposite. It requires an edge, of which there are three: informational, analytical, and behavioral. And as Ray Dalio says, “Alpha is zero sum. In order to earn more than the market return, you have to take money from somebody else.” Harvesting alpha takes significant work because it involves separating someone else from their capital. And that someone else is trying to do the same to you. Most traders and active investors are in the game to produce alpha. The competition among alpha players is what...
    On March 15, 2018 / By
  • Finance 0

    US Dollar Hampered By Downswing In Q1 Growth Expectations

    The US Dollar (via DXY Index) has had a docile week thus far, with each of the past two days of price action constrained by the high/low range established on Tuesday. Despite rates market pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week, a disappointing reaction to the February CPI report and notably weaker February Advance Retail Sales have provided little reason for traders to embrace a stronger US Dollar. Given the lighter economic calendar for today and tomorrow, the newswire will be most potent source of risk for the US Dollar as the calendar turns through the ides of March. Indeed, with focus on the shak...
    On March 15, 2018 / By
  • Finance 0

    Tis The Season To Go Long Petro

    Tis the season to get long oil as the five years upward price trajectory between mid-March and April has been solid for at least the last five years. For oil bulls, this is the most wonderful time of the year. This comes as the Energy Information Administration shocked markets with big product draws as bears hang onto the fact that U.S. oil production is rising and the one-week shock build in crude oil supply. The EIA reported that Crude inventory rose by a whopping 5.022 million barrels but that paled by comparison to the 6.271 million barrels drop in RBOB gasoline supply and a massive 4.360 million barrels drop in distillates supply. Crude ...
    On March 15, 2018 / By
  • Finance 0

    March 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Index Improves

    The Empire State Manufacturing Survey improved and remains in expansion. It was well above expectations. Analyst Opinion of Empire State Manufacturing Survey I am not a fan of surveys – and this survey jumps around erratically – but has been relatively steady for the last year. Key internals in the report marginally improved so I would consider this a better report than last month. Expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday were for a reading between 10.2 to 16.0 (consensus 14.6) versus the 22.5 reported. Any value above zero shows expansion for the New York area manufacturers. New orders subindex of the Empire State Manufacturing imp...
    On March 15, 2018 / By
  • Finance 0

    Testing Financial Cycle Mania

    Over the last year, cryptocurrencies became an icon for the speculative fervor that has increasingly driven the 2009-18 financial cycle. Leading the sector, bitcoin rose from $1200 last March, to $19,187 by December and back to $8140 this morning. Between rampant fraud, stolen coins, regulatory crackdown, outright bans and liquidation selling, cryptos can’t seem to catch a break these days. See: Over $60 billion wiped off value of cryptocurrencies in 24 hours as bitcoin slide continues. Though poster child bitcoin alone is down 58% in 3 months, its price is still up a whopping 578% since last March. Even if cryptos aren’t going extinct h...
    On March 15, 2018 / By
  • Finance 0

    Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down 4K

    Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending March 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 226,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 231,000 to 230,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,500, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 222,500 to 222,250. Claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal. [See full report] Friday’s seasonally adjusted...
    On March 15, 2018 / By
  • Finance 0

    Downward Pressure Mounting

    The main U.S. stock market indexes extended their Tuesday’s losses, as they closed 0.2-1.0% lower yesterday. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% following Tuesday’s bounce off resistance level at 2,800. However, it remained at the support level of last Friday’s daily gap up. It currently trades 4.6% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively weaker than the broad stock market, as it lost 1.0% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost just 0.2%. The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at around 2,775-2,780, marked by yesterday’s daily high. ...
    On March 15, 2018 / By
  • Finance 0

    Boeing, About To Bring Down The Dow If This Breaks

    When it comes to high flying stocks in the Dow, Boeing is a top performer, as it is up tenfold since the 2009 lows. The trend in BA is up and nothing of late has changed that! The strong rally saw Boeing kissing the underside of 30-year resistance line (A) and 9-year rising channel (B) at (1) last month. While kissing the underside of these lines at (1), BA might have created a bearish hanging man pattern. With momentum hitting the highest levels in 30-years, if rising support at (2) would break, Boeing could decline a large percent. With Boeing being the most expensive stock in the Dow, if it would decline, it would have a large impact on t...
    On March 15, 2018 / By