Stocks slightly lower on the day. In tonight’s video we look towards the last week of August… Is the market in for a late summer storm? Watch tonight’s video market update to find out. Video Length – 00:06:16...
Business-cycle recessions are not just inevitable, they are necessary to flush bad debt and marginal investments/projects from the system. The next recession–which I suggested yesterday has just begun–will be more than a business-cycle downturn; it will be a devastating meteor storm that destroys huge chunks of the economy while leaving other sectors virtually untouched. The dynamic that’s about to play out is simple: wages for the bottom 95% have gone nowhere for 17 years, while costs have soared far above official inflation for everyone exposed to real-world costs. We have filled the widening gap between stagnant house...
The most recent housing data continues to suggest weakness. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that sales of existing homes were down slightly last month from June. It continues a lower trend dating back to March. Overall, the level of resales is largely flat going back to the summer of 2015. At a 5.44 million seasonally-adjusted annual rate for July 2017, that is actually slightly less than the 5.45 million (SAAR) estimated for the same month two years earlier. The housing market is not crashing, nor does it appear to be in danger of doing so. But it is also not expanding, either, the latter condition relevant to broader macr...
We discuss the FHFA House Price Index, MBA Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales along with some International Real Estate news in this video. The government finally starting to crack down on money laundering with these luxury Real Estate Deals. The Housing econ reports for this week all came in on the low side of the consensus range, but this has sort of been representative of the decade long move up from the bottom of the 2007 housing crash. Just slow steady growth year over year with at times some softness in the data, a lot of conservative building practices, and every year we seem to be progressively moving in an ...
Video Length – 00:02:43 Technology is having a massive disinflationary impact on the global economy and, when it comes to interest rates and monetary policy, we need to rewrite the playbook to a certain degree, noted a strategist from BlackRock in a recent interview with FS Insider. “We are literally at the precipice of this dramatic hockey stick effect in terms of the scale at which you have technological evolution and its disinflationary impact,” said Shayan Hussain. Tech stands to completely change the fabric of the global economy. Many goods have actually already entered into disinflation or deflation in the last 20 years, he no...
Gold in particular is coiling, tighter and tighter. It was hard to tell if the bounce in stocks today was something meaningful, a last ditch attempt to stave off a selling wave, or something else. Have a pleasant evening....
The Trump news de jour was the likelihood of a debt ceiling vote NOT happening before the deadline, and the media loves to portray this as a time bomb for the markets. I don’t believe it, and neither did the market today. The QQQ had a rough morning sliding below Tuesday’s low and filling the gap from Tuesday morning which is where it abruptly turned around. This is why so many traders focus on ‘unfilled gaps’. It was hard to get too concerned about the weakness in the QQQ when the IWM was trading up on the day and over the highs of the last two days. As I’ve been saying, don’t get too concerned about or trust the moves in any one...
The Chart of the Day belongs to Ameren (AEE). I found the energy services stock by using Barchart to sort today’s Top Stocks to Own list first by the most frequent number of new highs in the last month, then again by technical buy signals of 80% or more. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 7/21 the stock gained 6.60%. Ameren Corporation companies provide energy services customers in Missouri and Illinois. Ameren UE, one of its subsidiaries, is the one of the largest electric utilities in Missouri and distributors of natural gas. Ameren CIPS, another subsidiary, is both an electric and natural gas utility and serves one of th...