By now most of us are fed up with hearing apocalyptic warnings of the coming VIX disaster when all the naïve short sellers will be squeezed in an epic 2008 style equity crash. Either you buy this argument, or you don’t. No sense wasting too much more time on it. I am of the opinion that for all the uninformed XIV buyers (the short VIX ETF), there are stacks of VXX longs desperately trying to catch the next great VIX rise. But, who knows? I might be wrong, and I definitely am not privy to the extent of institutional equity index volatility selling, so maybe there truly is a massive weak short position whose comeuppance will soon be laid bar...
The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for June increased to 127.8 from 127.0 in May and is currently at an all-time high. The 0.6 percent month-over-month gain was better than the 0.4% increase forecast by Briefing.com. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased again in June, driven by positive contributions from the majority of its components, especially building permits which finally improved after several months of weakness. In the first half of this year, the leading economic index increased 2.5 percent (about a 5.0 percent annual rate), faster than the growth of 1.5 percent (about a 3.0 percent annual rate) du...
Credit Suisse downgraded Pfizer (PFE) to Neutral from Outperform, saying that the company’s positive catalysts will become “more limited” over the next six to twelve months. DRIVERS TO SLOW: In recent years, Pfizer has benefited from strong use of its Ibrance drug for breast cancer and its Prevnar drug for bacterial infections, wrote Credit Suisse analyst Vamil Divan. However, demand for both drugs is slowing, he stated. Furthermore, patents on two other key drugs, Viagra and Lyric, are due to expire over the next 18 months, he wrote. ACQUIRED DRUGS FACE HURDLES: Pfizer has acquired prostate cancer treatment Xtandi and eczem...
Headline data for truck shipments were again mixed in June – but our analysis believes trucking growth rate is modestly improving. Analyst Opinion of Truck Transport I tend to put heavier weight on the CASS index which again showed a moderate improvement year-over-year. The ATA data continues to wander all over the map – and is likely a result of seasonal adjustment issues and a smaller share of shipping now going to ATA members. It is also interesting that the current trucking employment pattern is now showing a short term improvement trend which supports the CASS index. ATA Trucking American Trucking Associations’ advanced...
GBPUSD tumbled back below the 1.30 level in late European trading Thursday as it became clear that the second round of divorce talks between the UK and the EU has ended with the two sides little or no closer on any of the key issues. Moreover, the next round of discussions will not now begin until after the summer break in late August. Both the UK’s David Davis and the EU’s Michel Barnier said there had been some progress but it was clear there had been no breakthrough on any of the key issues, and the UK made it plain that it will leave the EU in 2019, deal or no deal. The British Pound, which had earlier received a brief boost from bet...
Over the past decades boring old insurance specialist Aflac (AFL) has done a remarkable job of enriching long-term income growth investors thanks to its impressive 34-year dividend growth streak. That’s courtesy of its strong, cash-rich business model, which has allowed it to grow its dividend by 14.6% annually over the past quarter century, resulting in annual total returns that easily beat the S&P 500’s. Of course past performance is no guarantee of future results, and recently Aflac has struggled to generate the kind of sales, earnings, cash flow, and dividend growth that investors have come to expect from it. However, many insu...
Genuine Parts Company (NYSE: GPC), a distributor of automotive replacement parts in the U.S., Canada, Mexico and Australasia, as well as industrial replacement parts in the U.S., Canada and Mexico through its Motion Industries subsidiary, business products in the U.S. and Canada through its S. P. Richards Company subsidiary and electrical and electronic components throughout the U.S., Canada and Mexico through its EIS, Inc. subsidiary, announced today record sales and earnings for the second quarter ended June 30, 2017. Financial Highlights Sales: were UP 5% to $4.1 billion, a new record. >Automotive Group sales: were UP 4%, including a...
Another day, another record low for volatility gauges, with Bank of America’s MOVE Index (considered Treasury Market ‘VIX’) falling to an unprecedented 48.26. As Bloomberg notes, the slide back down in volatility comes as the Treasury term premium looks to be failing in its latest attempt to climb back above zero. So investors in the world’s biggest bond market don’t want to pay for protection against price swings and they don’t care about getting paid for time risk — that can only add to concerns expressed by commentators including the Federal Reserve that markets are dangerously complacent....
Bitcoin (BTC) came into existence in January 2009. It was not the first ‘cryptocurrecny’ and there are now an estimated 950 competitors, with new ICO’s ‘Initial Coin Offerings’ appearing almost daily. BTC’s closest rival in terms of coins in circulation is Ethereum (ETH). The chart below shows how these currencies % of total market capitalisations has waxed and waned:- Source: coinmarketcap.com I want to concentrate on BTC since it remains the market leader with a total circulation of $33bln (reference BTCUSD 2000) whilst the outstanding issuance of its nearest rival ETH is $16bln. Below is a four month chart of BTCUSD, its price...