Image Source: Unsplash A little over a century ago, Captain John Alcock and Lieutenant Arthur Whitten Brown became the first people to make a nonstop, transatlantic flight. Beginning in Newfoundland and ending with a nonfatal crash landing on the west coast of Ireland, the trip took some 16 hours in a World War I bomber, at an average speed of 120 miles per hour.At the end of this month, if all goes according to plan, history will be made once again when a jet powered by 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will cross the Atlantic Ocean for the first time ever. Virgin Atlantic, the British carrier founded by billionaire Richard Branson, ...
The EUR/USD is cycling, looking for gains ahead of Tuesday’s data dump. Monday action remains thin, with little on the economic calendar. Markets hoping for a flat EU GDP reading, US CPI is expected to decline slightly. The EUR/USD is drifting in light Monday trading ahead of Tuesday’s headline data drop featuring EU Gross Domestic Product (GDPO) and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures.The Euro (EUR) ground to an intraday low of 1.0665 before catching a mild rebound into 1.0705 as the pair bounces around familiar levels.Markets are thin for a relaxed Monday with little of note on the economic calendar, and investor...
Image source: Pixabay Support Still HoldingGBPUSD continues to cling to support around the 1.2171 level. The level has acted as a magnet over recent months with price oscillating around that price point since mid-September. An attempt earlier this month at breaking higher saw price running into trouble at the 1.2437 level with that area acting as key resistance now. UK Recession RisksIn recent days, the focus has shifted back to potential UK recession risks. The first look at Q3 GDP saw growth at 0%, down from 0.2% over the prior quarter and barely above the -0.1% the market was looking for. With risks that the final figure comes in ne...
Image source: Pixabay Poland’s current account surplus surged to 0.6% of GDP over the last 12 months in September amid an improving foreign trade balance, but trade turnover continued to decline. We estimate that in the third quarter, net exports once again contributed positively to annual GDP. The broadly balanced external position supports zloty stabilityAfter two months of small deficits, September brought a current account surplus (€0.4mn in September after -€0.3mn in August). Surpluses in the trade in goods (€0.8mn in September after €0.3mn in August) and services (€3.0bn after €3.4bn the month before) more than offset ...
The economic data slate is light today to kick off the new week with the only US release of note being the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (which we will cover in tonight’s Closer), but tomorrow we’ll get the all-important CPI report for the month of October. In the chart below, we show the daily change of the S&P 500 on each CPI release day going back to 2000. As shown, it will be the one year anniversary of what is currently the record gain on a CPI day with the 5.54% jump last November when CPI came in weaker than expected, dramatically shifting Fed pricing. S&P 500 reactions to CPI days have rema...
Image Source: Unsplash FTSE 100 rose at the beginning of the week due to an increase in industrial metal mining stocks and copper prices. The life insurance index was also lifted by Phoenix Group’s forecast upgrade. The commodity-focused FTSE 100 increased by 0.25%.Phoenix Group, a UK-based insurance company, experienced a notable 5.8% surge in its shares, making it the top gainer on the FTSE 100 index. This upward movement follows the completion of the merger between two of its insurance brands, Standard Life and Phoenix Life.As a result of the successful merger, Phoenix Group has revised its full-year cash generation forecast. The ...
The S&P 500 and the Nifty rose last week. Indicators are mixed for the week. Markets have bottomed in the short-term and are approaching important resistance levels, as we enter bullish seasonality. We are transitioning from an inflationary regime to a deflationary collapse. The Nifty is also bottoming and will likely play catch-up this week.The past week saw US equity markets rise. Most emerging markets were unchanged, as interest rates rose. Transports fell. The Baltic dry index rose. The dollar rose slightly. Commodities fell. Valuations continue to be quite expensive, market breadth rebounded, and the sentiment is still bearish....
Image Source: Pixabay The shrieks of the deficit hawks have been growing louder with the fiscal 2023 deficit crossing 6.0 percent of GDP, and the projected future deficits being no lower. With interest rates now close to or above GDP growth, we regularly hear about the story of a looming debt spiral, where high debt leads to high interest payments, which add to annual deficits, making the debt even larger. To try to think clearly about the deficit and debt, it is worth pulling them apart and dealing with them as separate issues. This avoids many common sources of confusion. Is the Deficit Too Large? Is Inflation Out of Control?Back in ...
Stocks are scattered this afternoon, after Moody’s cut its U.S. credit rating outlook. At last glance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is modestly above breakeven, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) both swim in red ink. Traders are also keeping an eye on Treasury yields, with the 10-year note rising to 4.686% following the forecast change.Options traders are blasting Boeing Co (NYSE: BA), after the aerospace giant sold 95 aircrafts to Emirates Airlines for $52 billion. Already today, more than 121,000 calls and 45,000 puts have crossed the tape, which is four times the average intraday volume. New...
Photo by Marianne Krohn on Unsplash CottonGeneral Comments: Cotton closed lower last week, but rallied late in the week despite bearish USDA reports. It appears that the bearish reports ere already part of the price and now the market is trying to form at least a short term bottom. On the charts The weekly export sales report was strong and helped support prices. The monthly USDA reports were mostly ignored as market factors. USDA increased yields and production to 13.090 million bales. The demand side showed a little lower domestic demand but unchanged export demand. Ending stocks levels were increased to 320 million bales from 280 million...