Deutsche Bank says Trump’s America First policy puts the dollar last. BMO predicts a flattish dollar.
Let’s investigate the claim Trump’s ‘America First’ Puts the Dollar Last.
The administration’s “irreconcilable” goals of cutting trade imbalances while funding a large fiscal stimulus program pose the biggest challenge to the international monetary system since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement in the 1970s, George Saravelos, global co-head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note. The only way to resolve these conflicting objectives is via a weaker dollar, he said.
That’s because the U.S. will probably struggle to attract sufficient foreign capital to fund its twin deficits, and that lack of appetite will likely translate to more currency weakness, he said.
One Variable Analysis
The problem with Saravelos’ analysis is that it focuses on one variable. Call the “twin deficits” the budget deficit and the trade deficit two variables if you like.
Those ideas are not mutually exclusive. Two and four can both happen. It’s also what I expect.
The least likely item above is point number 5.
Looking back at point one, there are short-term and long-term impacts of Trump’s policy. Perhaps there is a whiff of inflation with rising interest rates, then a global recession.
A currency crisis is a given at some point, we just do not know when. It could be a decade away or start three months from now.