May natural gas prices continued their rally today, settling up just less than 2% following a slightly tighter than expected print yesterday and continued cash strength today.
Yet again we saw the front of the strip lead the way higher, with spreads tightening gradually along it.
Cash prices have continued to help drag up the front of the strip, a trend we saw yet again today.
This fit perfectly with our expectations, as our Morning Update title focused on how we expected a morning pop from cash prices before trading settled down.
The cash-led rally we have seen this week can best be seen by the May/October K/V contract spread, which has shot up significantly over the past week.
Cash prices have been aided by stronger burns this week as nuclear outages have skyrocketed.
Yet it was similarly clear that overnight weather changes were not as responsible for the rally today, as our Morning Update actually showed a slight tick down in our 15-Day GWDD forecast.
Still, it was our accurate reading of short-term price catalysts and balance that led us to predict the cash-led spike in prices this morning, and prices even gradually ticked lower through the rest of the day off of our $2.75 resistance level in line with our expectations.