Commodities – Breakout Attempt From Multi-Decade Pattern

The chart above looks at the Thomson Reuters Equal Weighted Commodity Index over the past 50-years, on a monthly basis.

The index has spent the majority of the 40-years inside of rising channel (1). While inside of this rising channel the index has spent the majority of the past 7-years inside of falling channel (2).

The index hit the bottom of the channel back in 2016 and a small rally has followed, where it has reached its 23% Fibonacci retracement level of the 7-year decline and created a series of flat tops.

The index now finds itself in a very tight spot between falling resistance and rising support. What this important commodity index does with the jam the tight jam, should send a very important long-term message for this sector (Crude Oil, Metals and Grains).