Photo by Kimzy Nanney on UnsplashFor the trading week that ended October 20, 2023, my proprietary Canadian Cannabis Company Index (MCCCI) decreased by 11.0% compared to the prior week when it decreased by 2.3%. The index consists of 15 stocks, many of which are among the most widely held holdings of the 3 ETFs (MJ, CNBS, and THCX) that I consider to be a reliable barometer of the Canadian cannabis sector. MCCCI’s differentiated business model is both weighted and market capitalization-based because I believe that this approach best represents the current landscape of the Canadian cannabis sector. Now let us look at this week’s good, b...
Photo by Zbynek Burival on Unsplash The oil market continues to be on edge as the market is worried about the timing and the fall-out of Israel’s expected ground offensive into Gaza in response to the Hamas terror attack. The New York Post reports that, “The US is now reportedly pressuring Israel to hold off any ground invasion pending further Qatar-led negotiations.” The hope is that these negotiations can get more hostages released and Israel can find a way to reach its military objectives while minimizing as much as possible the impact on the civilian population. Israel is warning that people should leave the area as the offensiv...
Image Source: UnsplashWith no big economic news today, I thought I would pick up where I left off on Friday, when I identified three major reasons for the economic tailwind that prevented a recession from happening in the past 12 months. 1. Commodity Prices Generally and Gas Prices Specifically I am beginning to think that all economic forecasts should come with an open caveat on the order of “subject to the trend in gas prices, which are set by a few geopolitical factors.” Certainly that was the case in 2022, when the War in Ukraine drove prices skyward, and then they fell back to ground as Europe in particular dealt with their reliance...
Image Source: UnsplashJust a few weeks ago, the gold and silver prices were languishing again, with gold trading in the $1830’s while silver was below $21. Yet we’ve seen a substantial rally since then, partially aided by the unfortunate geopolitical events in the Middle East, that left gold briefly over the $2,000 mark on Friday, while silver was within shouting distance of $24.Both metals have pulled back slightly on Monday morning following the rally. In today’s update, I talk about the positioning going on beneath the surface over the past week. I comment on the latest developments among the gold and silver shorts,...
Image Source: UnsplashIn today’s article, we will take a look at the past performance of the one-hour chart of Alphabet Inc. stock (GOOGL). The rally from the Sept. 26, 2023 low unfolded as a 5-wave impulse. So, we expected the pullback to unfold in 7 swings, and to find buyers again at the blue box area. We will explain the structure and forecast below. Alphabet Inc. One-Hour Chart – Oct. 20, 2023 Here is the one-hour Elliott Wave count from Oct. 20, 2023. The rally from Sept. 26, 2023 peaked at point (1), displayed in blue, and started a pullback to correct it. We expected the pullback to find buyers at point (2) in approxim...
Image Source: Pexels S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions The 23Q3 year-over-year blended earnings growth estimate is 1.2%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 5.8%. Of the 86 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 23Q3, 77.9% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66%. The 23Q3 year-over-year blended revenue growth estimate is 0.9%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 3.4%. Click here to view the full report.More By This Author:S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 23Q3 – Friday, Oct...
Image: BigstockOn Oct. 17, the Department of Commerce reported that retail sales in September increased 0.7% month-over-month, significantly beating the consensus estimate of 0.3%. Moreover, the metric for August was revised upward to an increase of 0.8% from the 0.6% reading reported earlier. Within overall retail sales, online sales grew 1.1% in September, second only to a 3% jump in miscellaneous store retailers.Internet – Commerce continues to evolve as the technologies driving it advance. On the one side are increasingly powerful and capable user devices. On the other are sophisticated, AI-enabled software platforms facilitating tr...
Image Source: Unsplash The Canadian dollar has been catching some air as the broad-market US Dollar Index has been receding. The Bank of Canada is slated to report this week with its next rate call on Wednesday. Market sentiment has been improving on Monday, sending the greenback lower. The Canadian dollar has recently been finding some momentum to kick off the trading week, bolstered by investors finding their risk appetite in early trading. With the US Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index data all due in the upcoming week, the US dollar is going to see ...
Image Source: PixabayLast week, one of my favorite income stocks issued a press release with its preliminary third-quarter results. This business development company (BDC) extended its long tenure as the best company and stock in the category. If there ever were a “buy-and-hold forever” stock, this one would be at the top of my list.Let me show you why.Congress created the business development company structure to provide debt and equity capital to small-to-midsize corporations. A BDC must, by law, distribute 90% of its net investment income as dividends to investors.Most BDCs focus on the lending side, making loans to generate relativel...
Image Source: PixabayThis week is full of important economic events. The central banks of Europe and Canada will hold monetary policy and interest rate meetings. Australia and Singapore will release new inflation data. Market watchers will also get an update on the state of the US economy, including third-quarter GDP data and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE index.All of this will take place against the backdrop of the ongoing reporting season, where Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL) will be reporting this week. Monday, Oct. 23 Weak volatility is forec...