The interesting thing is that since the PCE runs consistently 2pp below CPI. This struck me as a surprising stylized fact, at variance with what I knew from various analyses I’d conducted. I wrote that the difference was about 0.45 ppts over 1986-2019. Mr. Hall then cited a MorningStar report notes: at its peak in the summer of 2022, CPI inflation was almost 2 full percentage points higher than PCE inflation (9.0% vs. 7.1%). Well I certainly can’t deny this is the case. However, then one has to wonder about the statement: The interesting thing is that since the PCE runs consistently 2pp below CPI. I do not think one month of inflation d...
Starbucks (SBUX) is a roaster and retailer of specialty coffee globally. Besides its fresh, rich-brewed coffees, the company’s offerings include many complimentary food items and a selection of premium teas and other beverages, sold mainly through its retail stores.Analysts have taken their earnings expectations lower, landing the stock into an unfavorable Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchIn addition, the company is in the Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry, which is currently ranked in the bottom 37% of all Zacks industries. Let’s take a closer look at how the company currently stacks up. Starbu...
We kickoff the week with Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Barkin Speech at 11:50 A.M., Fed Williams Speech at 12:00 P.M., Loan Officer Survey at 1:00 P.M., Dairy Products at 2:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M. Grain futures started out lower with soybean products reversing last week’s trend. The big Monday decliner was KC Wheat due to better than expected rain that fell across Western Kansas late Friday and early Saturday which diminished the drought. The July KC/Chicago spread to a 20 cent premium. Corn and soybeans followed suit with weakness. During trade this morning it seems...
Dogecoin shot up earlier today, recording over 13% in gains over a 24-hour period, the highest recovery in the top ten cryptos. However, it has since lost momentum and trades 1.6% lower for the day.DOGE trades at $0.1586 at press time for a $22.9 billion market cap. Its trading volume has dipped 17% to $16 billion.In the past week, DOGE has gained 11.10%. It recorded a weekly low at $0.1209 on May 1 before surging to set a weekly high at $0.1688, a 39% increase as the market rebounded, led by meme coins.Reports have emerged recently that Elon Musk has made good on his promise to enable DOGE payments at Tesla, at least in part. Reportedly,...
While some in the marketplace are concerned about weak demand, a move by Saudi Arabia to raise their price for oil seems to suggest that they’re not that concerned. Consider the fact that the well prices according to technical analysis, West TX intermediate crude prices are close to the 100-day moving average and now are the most oversold on a 14-day relative strength index basis since they bottomed out last December.Now with the Gaza ceasefire talks falling apart, as was expected, the market is starting to realize that the geopolitical risk factors have not gone away. Reports say that Israel is warning Palestinians to evacuate parts of Raf...
By Clint Siegner, Money Metals Exchange Confidence in institutions such as the Federal Reserve may be falling, but it hasn’t fallen nearly as far or as fast as it should. Trillions of dollars, yen, euros, and yuan are invested according to central bank policy and propaganda. It isn’t going well.The U.S. economy is massively distorted, unhealthy, and hopelessly dependent on Fed stimulus. The Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) sectors of the economy have been overwhelming beneficiaries during the modern age of activist central banking.Those sectors have collectively doubled in size since 1947 as a percentage of gross domestic produ...
On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) was up 1.18% (for the week +1.03%), while the S&P 500 (US500) was up 1.26% (for the week +0.27%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.99% (for the week +0.93%). The US stocks rose thanks to a weaker-than-expected April employment report, which increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.The US jobs report recorded a 175,000 increase in Non-farm payroll employment for April, compared to the consensus forecast of 240,000, while March data was revised slightly upward to 315,000 from 303,000. In the household survey, the unemployment rate rose to 3....
The USD/CAD pair falls after failing to recapture the crucial resistance of 1.3700 in Monday’s early New York session. The Loonie asset slips to 1.3650 due to multiple headwinds: a decline in the US Dollar and a sharp recovery in the Oil price.Market sentiment is quite bullish, as investors’ confidence in the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates from the September meeting has improved. The S&P 500 opens on a bullish note, exhibiting a higher risk appetite. The scenario of the Fed pivoting to interest rate cuts is unfavorable for bond yields. 10-year US Treasury yields have come down below the crucial support of 4.50%.The ...
By Mike Maharrey, Money Metals ExchangeIn another stagflation warning sign, the U.S. service sector contracted in April even as service prices rose.The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4 in April, dipping from 51.4 in March. The expectation was for the index to increase to 52.0.A PMI reading below 50 signals a contraction in the service economy.It was the lowest non-manufacturing PMI reading since December 2022. Services account for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. An index measuring new orders for service businesses dipped to 52.2 in April, falling from a March reading of 54.4. Mean...
Will stocks continue their uptrend? Or is this just another leg up within a consolidation?Stocks were advancing on Friday, fueled by the Thursday’s earnings release from AAPL and the monthly jobs data that was released before the session opened. The S&P 500 index gained 1.26% following a 0.9% advance on Thursday. The market was the highest since April as the index went back above the 5,100 level.On Friday, April 19, the index hit a new medium-term low of 4,953.56. This marked its lowest level since late February, with a decline of over 311 points or 5.9% from the record high of 5,264.85 on February 28. Recently, stock prices rebounded a...