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A Soft Landing Is Fully Priced In
The S&P broke out to new all time highs Thursday in the wake of the Fed’s 50 basis point cut to the Federal Funds Rate on Wednesday. While it is consolidating a bit today (Friday), as long as it stays above the breakout level of around 5,670 the bulls are in control.One way to articulate the current narrative is that a soft landing is being priced in. Indeed there were two excellent articles by Greg Ip and Aaron Back in today’s WSJ arguing that a soft landing is now the base case. Both argue that the Fed’s decision to cut 50 is not a sign of panic about the economy but a recognition of the fact that rates are currently too high give... -
Finance 0
S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 24Q2 – Friday, Sep. 20
Image Source: Unsplash S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions 24Q2 Y/Y earnings are expected to be 13.0%. Excluding the energy sector, the Y/Y earnings estimate is 13.8%. Of the 499 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 24Q2, 79.2% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66%. The 24Q2 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 5.5%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 5.2%. Click here to view the full report.More By This Author:European ETF Flow Insights – August 2024Russell 2000 Earnings Dashboard 24Q2 – Thursday, Se... -
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Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories – Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
DR REDDY’S LABORATORIES (RDY) – DRREDDY (1D Chart) Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisFunction: Counter Trend (Minor degree, Grey) Mode: Corrective Structure: Zigzag/Flat unfolding Position: Impulse drop complete at Minuette Degree. Not labelled Details: A Minuette impulse wave looks complete within Minor Wave 4 Grey against 7110-20 mark. If correct, expect slight pullback higher before turning lower again.Invalidation point: 7110-20Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Daily Chart Technical Analysis and potential Elliott Wave Counts:Dr Reddy’s Laboratories daily chart is indicative of a potential correction underway towards 5600 leve... -
Finance 0
GDP Nowcasts Still Indicate Low Recession Risk For U.S. In Q3
US economic activity remains on track to post a softer but still-solid growth rate in next month’s official GDP report for the third quarter. The analysis is based on the median estimate from several estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.Today’s revised median estimate ticked up to a 2.6% real annualized rate for Q3. That slightly higher than the previous Q3 nowcast published on Sep. 13. For the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports output rose 3.0%. Despite warnings from some sources in recent months that a US recession was imminent, or had already started, a broad reading of the data has consistently suggested... -
Finance 0
Gold Boosted By Falling Interest Rates And Double Deficit-Debt Record In The U.S.
The United States has just set two new world records: one for its debt, the other for its deficit.Let’s begin by analyzing the country’s latest debt figures.Total U.S. debt (public and private combined) now exceeds $35 trillion: The vast majority of U.S. debt is held domestically, while the share held by foreign entities is declining as a percentage of total debt: The proportion of US debt held by foreign institutions has not increased over the past ten years. Meanwhile, public debt has continued to grow.We are currently witnessing an even more pronounced cycle of debt expansion. Since 2000, the slope of the curve representing thi... -
Finance 0
FTSE Fading From Two Week Highs As Pound Weighs
Image Source: Pexels Friday saw a dip in UK equities while the British pound strengthened. However, the stock index was expected to post weekly gains due to an increase in global risk appetite following the significant rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Due to the pressure from the strengthening British pound on export-orientated businesses, the FTSE 100 dropped 1%. The more locally orientated midcap index dropped as well.August saw a stronger-than-expected 1% increase in British retail sales, above estimates for a 0.4% monthly increase and an upward revision to growth in July.The Federal Reserve dropped rates by 50 basis points this week... -
Finance 0
Triple-Witch Says, “Remember Me?”
Image Source: Unsplash For a good portion of my life, I avoided taking vacation days on the third Friday of a month.Options expired on a monthly basis, typically on those third Fridays, and the concentration of expiring options had the potential to increase volatility, both in the market as a whole and for our proprietary positions.And in the last month of each quarter, those expirations were even more critical – the unpredictability of quarterly expirations led to the nickname of “triple witching” days.[i] Then and now, quarterly expirations are when stock index futures and options join equity options in ending their lifespans. Index... -
Finance 0
SOL Price Surges Following Key Announcements At Solana Breakpoint 2024
Image Source: Pexels Solana (SOL) has surged by over 5% today, hitting a high of $151.54, following significant announcements made during the Solana Breakpoint 2024 event, which just kicked off in Singapore.Today’s SOL price surge follows the breakout that occurred on September 18 after a period of consolidation between $124 and $139.As institutional interest grows, particularly from financial giants like Franklin Templeton and Citibank, SOL has seen a notable price increase, reflecting a broader trend of growing adoption and confidence in the Solana ecosystem. Franklin Templeton and Citibank join the Solana ecosystem One of the most gro... -
Finance 0
Bank Of Japan Pauses But Signals Normalisation Will Continue
The Bank of Japan unanimously decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.25%. Amid growing confidence in achieving its sustainable inflation target, the BoJ will closely watch the impact of FX movements on inflation. The timing of the next hike remains uncertain, but we see a chance of a hike in December.Yen. Image Source: Pixabay Statement shows BoJ confidence in 2% inflation target; importance of FX moves on prices In the statement, the BoJ assessed that the economy has recovered moderately, benefiting from accommodative financial conditions. On the price front, services prices increased but the effects of the pass-through of cost i... -
Finance 0
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Yen Plunges As Ueda Dodges Hike Signals
The USD/JPY price analysis shows the yen crashing after the Bank of Japan policy meeting. Although the central bank held rates as expected, Governor Ueda refrained from giving clear guidance on rate hikes. Instead, he focused on the economy. Japan’s central bank met on Friday and decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Moreover, the central bank’s forecasts showed that consumption in Japan’s economy would increase. Such an outlook favors rate hike expectations as policymakers will be more willing to hike when demand is high. However, Governor Ueda’s speech after the meeting contained little on future rate hikes. He kept from givin...
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