When you look at what the US has gone through over the last decade, in terms of the job market, what stands out is the total decimation of jobs during the Great Financial Crisis. From early 2008 until early 2010, we went through the worst job loss in 60 years. Not since the 1940s had the proportion of people who lost their jobs been so large from one year to the next. But something else stands out too — and that’s demographics. Here’s one statistic: the prime working-age population peaked in 2007 when the last business cycle ended. We’re talking about the number of people in the 25-54 year age range — the people likely to be both...
Get ready! Here’s a slap for just about all of us, and it could be a costly one… There are two new national sports in the U.S. and both are about the stock market: guessing when this bull market will end and guessing about what the next big move in the market will be. It’s really getting ridiculous. Anyone who follows my work or that of the other editors at The Oxford Club already knows that both of these activities are just market timing, which never works. And worse, both are nothing more than shortcuts to sizable tax deductions for big capital losses. The money media would have you believe the big run-up in stocks has moved us into u...
Rising global oil prices boosted Nigeria’s foreign reserves in January 2018, the reserves which rose by 50 percent in 2017 from $23.6 billion low of October 2016, jumped to $38.8 billion in 2017. According to the new Central Bank of Nigeria’s statement released on Monday, foreign reserves increased further in January, rising to $40.4 billion. The highest level since January 2014. The foreign reserves, which had hit $62 billion in September 2008 before $12 billion was used to settle external debts, was projected by the CBN Governor Mr. Godwin Emefiele at the Annual Bankers’ Dinner of the Chartered Institute of Bankers in November to hi...
Daily action – this evening the S&P is a bit more defensive. Perhaps it’s a delayed reaction to our final hour report about the Washington Post saying Trump may be asked to testify to Mueller. It’s on all the networks tonight. It doesn’t strike me as problematic; maybe the Oprah 20/20 is a bigger deal. Market action at this point requires rotation to stay alive in this parabola. It is at such times you hear stories like “there’s not enough stock to buy”. Of course the buybacks helped engineer that structure; but since discounting already levitated equity prices; perhaps what they’re real...
As expected, the Federal Reserve reported today that consumer credit expanded by an unusually large amount in November. Non-revolving debt rose by $16.6 billion, which is only slightly more than the recent average, and less than the average flow three years ago. It was instead revolving consumer credit where balances expanded the most (+$11.2 billion). As noted last week, that is in keeping with what appears to be renewed weakness in the labor market following a small uptick mid-year last year. For November, it was one of the largest one-month gains for revolving credit going back to the Great “Recession.” While there has been some debate...
The Chart of the Day belongs to Caterpillar (CAT). I found heavy machinery stock by using Barchart to sort today’s 52 Week High list first by the most frequent number of new highs in the last month, then again for technical buy signals of 80% or more. Next I used the Flipchart feature to review the charts for consistent price appreciation. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 11/22 the stock gained 20.30%. Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives for heavy and general construction, rental, quarry, aggregate, mi...
Too good to be true? More gains for the stock market. It feels unstoppable. The PMO index is at its max. In a normal cycle, this is usually when I start thinking about lightening up a bit and raising some cash. I’m starting to take partial profits on anything that looks extended, and I am selling anything that has been performing poorly. I sold my Copper Miners. Talk about extended. And now copper may be headed lower for a well deserved break. The level of new 52-week lows is not providing any sign that there is trouble brewing for stocks. It seems that as though the only thing that there is to worry about is that it is all just too goo...
Sam Lee wrote a very awesome piece last year titled “Waiting for the Market to Crash is a Terrible Strategy“. The basic gist of the post was that you shouldn’t wait around for market crashes trying to time when you will invest in the markets. That summary is a disservice to Sam’s thoughtful post so go give it a full read. As the stock market booms and Donald Trump touts the market’s record highs every day there is a palpable feeling of missing out. Many people are now jumping in and waiting for a surge in stocks. In a recent note Jeremy Grantham discussed the prospects of a “melt-up”. This is something I’ve discussed ever sinc...
After a wild few weeks of trading, natural gas prices seemed to settle down a bit today. The February contract traded in an 8.5-cent range through the day today, which is the smallest intraday range for the prompt month natural gas contract since December 19th. This came as prices gapped up weakly last night and settled right at the prompt month 30-DMA today. Cash prices ticked back a bit lower at Henry Hub again. But you wouldn’t know it looking at the front of the natural gas strip, as G/H still widened rather significantly today given the relatively small move higher in flat price. Meanwhile, the afternoon run of the GFS ensembles cl...
The bulls have yet to see a single day in the red so far. There is so much green across the board, that the market is once again, becoming very easy. I’m a little tepid here. I added some positions in late December, as well as all throughout last week. There are more positions that I would like to add here, but I’m really just wanting to stand pat until we see the bulls book some profits and pull price back to more reasonable levels. But if you don’t share these views, then there are plenty of bullish setups out there to be had still. Just take a look at the list below and find the ones that work best for you. My bullish...